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【国际随笔】北美自贸协定更新不易
2017-08-22 17:22:03 中国青年网
8月16日至20日,美国、加拿大和墨西哥的谈判代表在华盛顿就更新北美自由贸易协定进行了首轮谈判。在5天时间内,三方就20多项议题进行了谈判,并为接下来的谈判制定了计划。在分析人士看来,虽然美加墨三国均有意修改北美自贸协定,但三方各有所求分歧较大,未来谈判或将更加艰难,谈判结果也难以预料。
虽然此次三国谈判受到外界较大关注,但在连续5天的闭门谈判结束前,几乎没有任何具体谈判信息透露出来。谈判结束后,三方没有举行记者会,加拿大和墨西哥两国代表离开前也未对媒体有任何表态。不过根据美国贸易代表办公室提供的三方联合声明,三方此次就20多项议题进行了谈判,并已开始着手推进文本内容,在未来两周时间内三方将继续提交额外文本、评论和替代方案。
北美自贸协定自1994年开始实施,在23年的时间内将美加墨三国打造成一个区域经济一体化的范本,促进了北美整体贸易额增长和国际分工的细化。有数据显示,1993年至2016年,美加墨贸易额从3400亿美元增至1.2万亿美元。不过,该协定也加大了美国和其他两国的贸易逆差,例如去年美墨贸易逆差达556亿美元。正因如此,美国总统特朗普认为北美自贸协定是“灾难性”的,并威胁退出该协定。美国贸易代表莱特希泽也认为,北美自贸协定签署以来导致70万美国人失业。在此次谈判中,减少美国对墨西哥和加拿大的贸易逆差成为美方的优先目标。
在分析人士看来,北美自贸协定在生效23年之后,的确有必要进行更新,尤其是电子商务、数字经济、环保标准和知识产权等方面的内容,这也是加拿大和墨西哥同意重新谈判的原因。不过,加、墨两国却并不同意美国为减少贸易逆差而单纯减少进口、增加出口,尤其是不希望美国采取恢复关税等贸易保护主义措施。在加拿大和墨西哥看来,“更自由”才是谈判的关键,即新协定应促进而非阻碍自由贸易。有分析称,政府采购规定、原产地规则和争端解决机制将成为谈判的焦点和难点。
除了三国分歧较大外,此次重新谈判北美自贸协定还面临时间紧的问题。由于墨西哥和美国明年将分别举行总统选举和国会中期选举,两国都希望能在明年初完成谈判。而在首轮谈判中,三方也制定了较快的谈判节奏,在接下来一个多月的时间内将再举行三轮谈判。对于三方的这一安排,不少贸易专家并不看好。有分析认为,考虑到谈判议程广泛和明年选举的影响,整个谈判进程很可能会拖延至2019年,而且能否谈成也很难预料。
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