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特朗普的“师爷”出局,中国能松口气吗

2017-08-22 08:22:25   中国青年网

■本报记者 廖勤

在外界的纷纭猜测中,白宫首席战略师班农最终去职,为8个月的白宫生涯画上句号。这位对华鹰派人物的离去将对中美关系产生何种影响?

“反华”思想受扼杀

班农被称为美国总统特朗普的“师爷”。在《华盛顿邮报》专栏作家乔希·罗金看来,班农的突然离去将对美中关系产生巨大影响。

自特朗普入主白宫后,班农一直在推动一项新的大战略,以巩固美国政府遏制中国的努力——在经济上以多种方式与中国对抗,并重振美国“重返亚洲”战略。

“彻底扭转美国对华战略是班农改变美国外交和经济政策计划的核心所在,如今,随着班农的‘缴械’,这一战略已处于不确定状态。”

文章进一步梳理了班农“反华”思想的渊源。40年前,班农就认为,在保持对中国的优势方面,美国需要一项长期战略,正如当年为对抗苏联做出的战略设计。在他看来,中国的威胁远胜于当年的苏联。在幕后,班农一直孜孜不倦忙于实施他的计划,以赢得与中国的经济战争。他乐于告诉同事,自己花了50%的时间研究中国。

不过,乔希·罗金认为,如今,那些反对班农对华政策的人士却留在白宫,他们将重新确立对美中关系的控制权,扼杀班农的一些关键提议。

班农此前坦言,他的主张遭到其他高级官员的反对,包括白宫国家经济委员会主任科恩、财政部部长姆努钦。在前国务卿基辛格的帮助下,中国政府也与特朗普女婿、白宫高级顾问库什纳和国务卿蒂勒森建立了密切关系。

库什纳—基辛格的观点是,美中关系太过复杂和重要,不能承受陷入混乱的风险。他们主张合作而非对抗、整合而非孤立。中国也持这一立场,并希望在互相尊重和不干涉内政的基础上构建新型大国关系。“现在,班农走了,那些推动这一战略调整的特朗普政府官员们失去了他们的领袖”,文章写道。

决定权仍在特朗普手中

然而,《金融时报》撰文指出,一些分析人士认为,对中国来说,班农的退出只是带来暂时的缓解,但不会产生深远影响。班农只是一个人,而最终决定权仍在特朗普手中。特朗普政府在对华贸易问题上仍会保持强硬立场。

悉尼大学中美关系专家阿什利·汤森德认为,即使班农走了,特朗普政府的其他官员,包括高级贸易官员莱特希泽、纳瓦罗和丹尼斯·谢伊,仍会推动采取一些激进措施,以减少美国对华贸易赤字。“若指望特朗普的亚洲团队会因班农的离去而软化立场,结果只会令人失望,”汤森德说。

还有一些观察人士认为,对北京来说,白宫少了班农未必就意味着利好。虽然班农反全球化的孤立主义思想已经破坏了华盛顿在亚洲的地位,但是,必须警惕特朗普的外交政策重新向美国“传统根基”回摆的可能性。针对美中爆发经济冲突的可能,尽管特朗普政府中的建制派官员缓和了调子,但是他们可能会在战略、安全和外交方面提出更高要求,下更大赌注。

《纽约时报》也认为,班农虽然出局,但是他的核心世界观可能会继续在场,其生命力会比他本人的仕途更长久。比如虽然班农被免职,但他背书的对华贸易调查却按部就班地推进。

不过,《纽约时报》指出,班农的离去可能会使一些争论激烈的问题趋于平衡,朝着更主流的方向发展。特朗普的老朋友克里斯·拉迪说,在一些问题上,特朗普与班农“英雄所见略同”。但两人的最大不同是,特朗普比班农更务实,更讲实用主义。此外,班农的影响力也不宜被过于夸大,毕竟远在江湖已不能和居于庙堂的近水楼台效应相比。

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