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财经观察:欧洲恐袭频发对经济影响几何

2017-08-21 17:48:59   新华网

新华社北京8月21日电 财经观察:欧洲恐袭频发对经济影响几何

新华社记者

正值暑期旅游旺季,西班牙旅游胜地巴塞罗那却发生恐袭事件,令一些人对西班牙乃至欧洲的旅游业和经济前景感到担忧。分析人士认为,短期内恐袭可能给旅游等行业带来一定冲击,但长期来看对宏观经济影响有限,欧洲经济复苏势头预计不会受到太大影响。

恐袭频发旅游业短期受创

17日,西班牙巴塞罗那市中心发生货车撞人恐怖袭击事件。当天夜间,在巴塞罗那以南100多公里处又发生一起类似袭击事件。两起事件共造成14名平民死亡、100多人受伤。

西班牙恐击事件令欧洲多家旅游、航空企业股价遭遇微寒流。恐袭当天,法国酒店业巨头雅高和法国航空公司股价出现不同程度下跌。拥有英国航空公司、西班牙航空公司、西班牙布埃林航空公司等多家航企的国际航空集团当天股价也明显下挫。

据英国《金融时报》报道,旅游业占西班牙国内生产总值(GDP)的14%。今年前五个月,西班牙接待游客数量同比增长12%,达2800万人。恐袭事件预计将对蓬勃发展的西班牙旅游业造成不利影响。

法国《回声报》也认为,恐袭可能影响当地旅游业。2015年11月巴黎发生死伤数百人的连环恐袭,2016年法国接待外国游客数量从前一年的8500万人次下降至8300万人次,到2016年末法国旅游业才逐渐摆脱恐袭阴影。

不过,恐袭对旅游业的影响并不能一概而论。今年上半年伦敦和曼彻斯特先后发生多次恐袭,但对英国旅游业影响不大。英国国家统计局近日公布的数据显示,今年第二季度,英国接待外国游客约1080万人次,同比增长8%。

英国媒体援引“前进指南”旅游信息公司的数据报道说,英镑贬值因素胜过了游客对恐袭事件的担心,使赴英旅游人数继续增加。

法国旅游研究机构“促进旅游发展”负责人迪迪埃·阿里诺说,研究表明,一个城市知名度越高,其旅游业就越不容易受到恐袭影响,而且连环恐袭、而非单一恐袭事件才可能使游客认为某一城市“不安全”。

欧盟旅游业协会公共关系顾问大卫·塔什对新华社记者说,巴塞罗那恐袭发生在暑期,而游客在暑期之前已经确定旅行计划。要观察恐袭对其旅游业的影响,可留意游客近期是否取消机票、酒店等订单,但预计取消西班牙之行的游客并不多。

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