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鸡蛋价格上涨空间有限

2017-08-21 06:11:38   中国青年网

农业部监测数据显示:8月15日,全国鸡蛋平均批发价为3.98元/斤;8月份第一周,全国鸡蛋平均零售价为4.06元/斤。北京新发地农副产品批发市场鸡蛋批发商李爱英目睹了近期鸡蛋价格的大幅上涨。8月4日批发价还是3.52元/斤,8月11日已涨到4.15元/斤,一周之内大幅上涨了17.90%,比一个月前的7月11日2.78元/斤更是飙升了49.28%。

“7月底以来,鸡蛋价格一改往日下降走势,逐渐开始上涨,重回4元时代。虽然近期累计涨幅很大,但仍处于长时间低于成本价后的恢复性上涨。”农业部禽蛋市场监测预警首席分析师张超说。

鸡蛋价格短期大幅上涨,阶段性供应减少是原因之一。“以往南和县大大小小的养鸡场存栏蛋鸡60多万只,现在估计只剩20万只。”河北省南和县蛋鸡养殖大户魏峰说。以前,魏峰每天从本县收购500箱鸡蛋发运给外地客户,现在3天都难收齐500箱。

今年上半年以来,蛋价持续低迷,导致产能加快下降,产蛋鸡存栏量下降明显。7月份全国产蛋鸡存栏量12.25亿只,较6月份减少0.4%,较去年同期减少7.1%。此外,高温天气抑制蛋鸡产蛋,鸡蛋整体供给有所减少。

鸡蛋价格上升行情会否持续下去?张超认为,短期内供需面依旧宽松,蛋价将震荡上涨,但涨幅有限。

从鸡蛋供给看,进入8月份,蛋鸡养殖阶段性盈利,加之产蛋鸡多集中在500天以下,蛋鸡淘汰将会显著减少;春季补栏蛋雏鸡以及部分青年鸡转栏进入产蛋期,可有效增加产能。综合来看,8月份产蛋鸡存栏会比较充足;9月份后,产蛋鸡存栏会有所下降。整体来看,下半年鸡蛋供需宽松局面并未实质性改变。

从鸡蛋价格看,8月份鸡蛋供给充足,随着学校陆续开学和中秋节临近,蛋价将处于震荡上涨态势。进入9月份,因鸡蛋产量略减,大中专院校开学带动团体消费增加,以及中秋月饼加工需求增加,蛋价将会出现明显的季节性上涨行情。中秋、国庆双节结束后,蛋价或在出现一定回调后趋于稳定。受整体供需面宽松的影响,蛋价上涨幅度仍然有限。

鸡蛋价格飙升,养鸡场是否可以大幅补栏呢?“近期鸡蛋价格大幅上涨最主要的推手是鸡蛋期货。许多商户按‘鸡蛋价格指数网’的报价制定价格,易出现人为操控。有的批发市场已经撤销了,但网站上仍有该市场的报价,可见有失真成分。鸡蛋价格短期大幅上涨难以持续。养鸡场不要急于扩充产能,可以观察一段时间。”北京新发地农副产品批发市场统计部经理刘通说。

张超也建议养殖户理性看待本次蛋价上涨,补栏要视自身实际情况,切忌过度补栏造成产能过剩,导致新一轮价格下跌。

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