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石化行业呈恢复性增长(市场观察)

2017-08-21 04:11:32   中国青年网

位于河南省濮阳市的中石化中原油田文23储气库是中国中部地区目前在建的最大的天然气储气库。目前文23储气库各项主体工程建设正有序推进。图为技术人员在注采站进行流程调试。

仝 江摄(人民视觉)

8月15日,中国石油和化学工业联合会发布了2017年上半年石油化工行业运行情况。在上半年中国经济整体向好的态势下,中国石油和化学工业经济运行也总体保持良好态势,相关指标超出预期并呈现恢复性增长的态势。专家指出,当前市场需求改善,行业整体效益较好,但行业依旧面临投资动力不足等问题,未来亟须科技创新和结构调整破解行业难题。

收入利润增速双高

中国石油和化学工业联合会党委常务副书记曾坚表示,上半年,全行业效益虽然波动较大,但总体呈现恢复性增长势头,收入和利润增速均较高。

从收入看,上半年全行业收入增长17.7%,为5年来同期最高增速。其中,石油天然气开采和石油加工业增速分别达到24.7%和21.4%,高于全国规模工业增速11.1和7.8个百分点。

利润增幅更高。全行业利润总额增长50.3%,创6年来同期最高增幅。其中,化学工业利润增幅达30.3%,大幅高于全国工业22.0%的平均增长。行业盈利能力也有所增强。1至6月,石油和化工行业主营收入利润率达5.98%,为近3年来同期最高。

“这些成绩的取得,得益于石化行业坚定不移地推进供给侧结构性改革的决心,得益于全行业‘去产能’和传统产业转型升级的积极进展。”曾坚说。

出口消费均有改善

中国是石油和化工行业进出口和消费大国,行业经济总量和总营业收入等已位居世界前列。今年以来,随着外需市场的改善,石油和化工行业出口贸易在连续两年下降后重拾增长势头。海关数据显示,1至6月,累计进出口总额同比增长25.0%,为2012年以来同期最大增幅。其中,出口增长10.4%,进口增幅达33.3%。

国内市场消费亦呈现改善趋势,表现为能源消费增长趋快,主要化学品缓中趋稳。1至6月,中国石油天然气表观消费量4.02亿吨(油当量),同比增长7.2%,增速比上年同期加快1.2个百分点;主要化学品表观消费总量增幅约4.8%,比上年加快1.1个百分点。

曾坚表示,石化产业是基础原材料产业,在上半年国内外经济形势改善以及其他产业的积极带动下,石化行业也呈现较好的发展势头,并表示对下半年的行业形势依旧看好。市场投资报告也预测,下半年行业需求会逐渐变好,不过仍然存在行业出清的可能性。

行业问题亟须破解

值得注意的是,当前石油和化工行业也呈现一些新问题。

一是市场剧烈波动。上半年主要石油和化学品市场呈现冲高回落走势,价格剧烈波动。虽然同比涨幅较大,但石化产品价格的大起大落不仅牵动上下游领域,更被认为会造成石化市场信心的波动。

二是投资动力不足。上半年,石油和化工行业固定资产投资在经历短暂增长后再次下降。其中,石油和天然气开采业受油价影响,投资大幅波动,化学工业投资则持续疲软。

此外,单位成本回升较快。1至6月,石油和化工行业每100元主营收入成本回升至84.32元,同比上升0.03元。联合会预计未来行业的利润空间将会进一步压缩。

中国石油和化学工业联合会副秘书长庞广廉表示,投资的持续疲软是多个因素造成的,一方面,油价还没有达到盈利水平,而化工行业在严格的“环保税”及地方政策变动下,短期内恐怕也很难有很大的转变。这其实突显当前石化行业整体面临的产业结构调整问题,例如油品升级以及拓展化工新材料新兴领域等。未来行业将需要从科技创新和结构转型中寻找动力。

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