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日本经济复苏面临多重挑战

2017-08-11 08:16:41   中国经济网

日本内阁府10日公布的最新数据和调查结果显示,核心机械订单意外连续第三个月下降,且多数分析师对刚刚重新组阁的政府持悲观态度。有分析认为,日本经济复苏根基尚不牢固,随着贸易顺差日趋下滑,未来经济前景面临挑战。

数据显示,6月核心机械订单较前月减少1.9%。市场预期中值为增加3.7%。机械订单被视为衡量未来六至九个月企业资本支出的指标。

今年二季度核心订单连续第二季下降,为2012年首次季度连降,并且本季中出现月度连续环比下降。这令人对决策者的乐观看法产生质疑,决策者预计企业信心好转将推高资本支出。

数据显示,二季度核心机械订单较上季下降4.7%,创一年来最大单季跌幅。一季度机械订单减少了1.4%。

虽然分析师警告不要过度解读这一波动较大的数据,但在下周一将公布第二季国内生产总值(GDP)之前,这份6月数据的下降还是带来了负面信号。

日本内阁府调查的企业预计,第三季度核心机械订单可能较上季增长7.0%。

政治风波也将影响日本经济前景。日本首相安倍晋三上周进行了2012年重新执政以来的第四次内阁改组。多家日本主流媒体最新民调显示,安倍内阁支持率目前已跌破30%,进入“危险区间”。除了政治丑闻,安倍一直鼓吹的大规模经济刺激政策也并未达到预期效果。安倍上周重组内阁后表示,促进经济发展仍是他的第一要务。他重申将寻求使日本经济进入一个公司获利、物价和薪资上涨的良性循环。

根据路透社的月度调查,受访分析师认为安倍晋三应将监管改革当作优先事项。该调查显示,分析师仍对未来几年日本的通胀上升前景持悲观态度。

调查中,分析师预估日本经济本财年料将扩张1.4%,下一财年仅为1.1%。今明两年核心通胀率料平均为0.6%和0.8%,远低于日本央行的2%目标。

“大胆的放宽管制,是(安倍)增长策略的一部分,但尚未推进太多,政府需要致力于此。”信金中金总合研究所分析师角田匠称,鼓励就业市场的流动性是重要政策,这将支持潜在成长率并帮助提升薪资。

在路透社的调查中,35位分析师中的31位预计,日本央行下一步骤将是开始缩减其超宽松货币政策。

日本央行根据当今实际情况,日前将2%通胀目标的实现时间从之前的“2018年度前后”推迟至“2019年度前后”。由此可见,日本政府拉动通胀的措施效果不佳。

另外,贸易红利也逐步减少。日本财务省最新数据显示,今年上半年日本贸易顺差为1.04万亿日元,同比大幅下降41.1%。

不过,日本经济整体仍在复苏的轨道上,企业信心和融资成本等因素为增长提供了动力。

据路透社调查,下周一公布的数据料将显示,得益于内需推动,因消费者支出复苏且公司增加资本支出,日本经济在第二季度实现连续第六个季度增长。日本第一季度国内生产总值(GDP)环比年率为增长1.0%。

另外,国内的基建需求有望拉动日本实体经济复苏。部分分析师表示资本支出趋势依然向上,因为2020年东京奥运会将带动基础建设需求,且在劳动力越来越短缺的情况下,企业需支出购置设备以提升运营效率。

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