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季节性因素致信贷回落M2再创新低

2017-08-16 07:13:00   中国青年网

8月15日,中国人民银行发布的数据显示,7月末,广义货币(M2)余额162.9万亿元,同比增长9.2%,增速分别比上月末和上年同期低0.2个和1个百分点。当月人民币贷款增加8255亿元,同比多增3619亿元。

统计显示,7月末M2增速创下新低,继续保持之前的低速增长态势。“M2增速创下历史新低不必过于担忧。随着金融去杠杆效果显现,金融对实体经济支持力度将加大。”中国民生银行首席研究员温彬表示,自今年二季度以来,金融去杠杆效果逐步显现,同业业务增速放缓,货币派生效应减弱,因此M2增速连续3个月低于10%,并于本月创下9.2%的历史新低。

对于M2继续保持低增速,还应考虑季节性因素。交通银行金融研究中心高级研究员陈冀解释称,由于信贷较上月大幅回落7092亿元,同时,缴税因素使得财政存款在7月大幅增加1.16万亿元,二者共同对7月M2增速形成了较强的拖累。

7月末,新增信贷数据较上月大幅回落。专家认为,对于新增贷款数据,不能简单地同上月相比。信贷增长受季节性因素影响较大,每年6月都是信贷增长的“大月”,每年7月的新增贷款通常在6月大幅扩张之后呈现季节性下降,因此结合季节性因素来看,今年7月信贷增长并不弱。

与去年7月相比,今年7月的新增人民币信贷实际上超出了市场预期。“今年7月的新增人民币贷款比2014年至2016年的同期均值多出2000亿元。”温彬解释称,这说明银行加大了对实体经济的支持力度,增加了表内信贷的投放。

另一关注的焦点是,企业中长期贷款少于房贷。数据显示,7月,住户部门中长期贷款增加4544亿元,同期企业中长期贷款为4332亿元。

“企业中长期贷款少于居民中长期贷款,并不意味着目前信贷对于实体经济的支持要弱于对居民的信贷。”陈冀说,企业中长期贷款少于房贷,原因在于7月地方债务置换的规模明显较前几月规模更大,7月的置换规模可能约占今年已置换规模的三分之一,对于企业信贷的下沉效应可能达到2000亿元以上。7月居民中长期贷款难以明显回落,这主要受居民购房行为选择偏好以及银行信贷资源配置偏好综合影响。

中金固收分析师表示,7月份金融数据和经济数据都有一个类似特征,即一些变量在季度末异常变化后,在季度初会反向变化,从而引发数据波动,因此不能仅以单月数据波动下结论。剔除一些异常波动因素,金融数据尚未超脱正常范围,也不会引发货币政策调整。

专家认为,货币政策仍将坚持稳健中性的基调。陈冀说,进入三季度后,市场流动性补充和对冲都适时适度,为防止货币市场利率进一步上升以及受其传导影响的信贷利率上升,未来一段时间央行调控流动性的重点都会聚焦在流动性和利率的稳定之上。

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