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8月14日,7月份中国经济数据甫一发布,市场随即“炸开了锅”。面对着工业、投资增速的回落,一时间,“7月经济数据全线回落”“两大投资增速双双下滑”等成为一些媒体、机构热议的话题,并有人直接将其解读为“今年经济将前高后低”“中国经济下半年会面临很大的下行风险”。对此,专家指出,从整体经济形势来看,过分担忧中国经济下行实在没有必要:一方面,今年下半年中国经济稳定增长仍有保障,实现全年增长6.5%左右的目标基本没有悬念,且中长期还将能保持中高速增长;另一方面,随着供给侧结构性改革的深入推进、新旧动能的加快转换,中国经济的竞争力、活力都将不断增强,经济韧性会更足。
数据回落理性看
7月份,中国经济部分数据出现了回落。国家统计局数据显示,7月份,全国规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长6.4%,增速比上月回落1.2个百分点;社会消费品零售总额增长10.4%,增速比上月回落0.6个百分点;1-7月份,全国固定资产投资(不含农户)增长8.3%,增速比1-6月份回落0.3个百分点。
“就宏观经济而言,经济数据的短期波动是很正常的,特别是中国经济正处在加快新旧动能转换的时期,新动能、旧动能的发展都还未完全稳定下来,这在宏观方面就容易表现为经济数据的波动。因此,对7月份数据的回落不宜夸大解读,应更理性去看。一方面工业、投资等增速总体是小幅回落,属于正常波动的范围;另一方面增速回落有其特殊、偶然因素,特别是7月份高温天气持续、洪涝灾害较严重,生产经营、投融资活动受此影响有所放缓。”中国人民大学财政金融学院副院长赵锡军在接受本报记者采访时说。
此外,值得注意的是,尽管7月份部分数据较上月或上半年有所回落,但较去年同期总体还是上升的:工业增加值增速比上年同月加快0.4个百分点,零售增速比上年同月加快0.2个百分点,前7个月投资增速比上年同期加快0.2个百分点。
提质增效更重要
速度之外,中国经济还有着更为重要的关注点。国家统计局新闻发言人毛盛勇表示,从当前来看,中国经济总体平稳、稳中向好,也是深化供给侧结构性改革,推进重点领域和关键环节改革的一个重要窗口期。中国经济不仅要追求经济有“块头”,还得要有“肌肉”,要强健。从这个角度来说,我们更多的关注点要放在中国经济的提质、增效、升级上来,这点更为重要。
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