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国泰基金:看好估值与业绩匹配的成长股
2017-08-15 15:28:39 中国经济网
创业板、中小板双双大涨,看好估值与业绩匹配的成长股
我们认为今天成长股的大幅反弹主要是存量博弈的结果。前期市场周期股涨幅强劲,在5-6月需求悲观预期修复的基础上,7-8月周期股上涨的核心逻辑来自于供给端,即去产能和限产的力度超预期。因此一旦供给侧政策有所松动或者不及预期,周期股未来走势的不确定性上升,性价比有所下降。但从投资者情绪的角度来看,近期雄安主题活跃以及军工行业表现强劲都体现出目前投资者风险偏好仍然维持在较高水平。因此从需求端逻辑出发,新兴产业与消费升级行业的想象空间仍然较大,存量资金博弈下,创业板前期关注度较低,流动性再进一步收紧的可能性较小,成长股或将迎来反弹机会。
综上所述,我们认为创业板存在自下而上精选个股的机会,可自下而上选择估值业绩匹配、机构持仓较少的创业板个股。但总的来说,市场整体风格切换的可能性不大,除了创业板自下而上精选个股的机会外,我们相对看好券商、建筑等前期涨幅较少的板块。
(风险提示:市场观点将随各因素变化而动态调整,不构成投资者改变投资决策或选择具体产品的法律依据。基金有风险,投资需谨慎。)
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