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理性看待经济统计数据
2017-08-15 10:20:02 中国青年网
目前中国经济正处于增速换挡、结构调整、动力转换阶段,一段时间以来经济下行压力较大,经济统计数据成为人们关心和热议的一个焦点。不仅国内各界,国外一些机构和媒体也高度关注中国经济统计数据。
人们期望经济统计数据具有准确性、及时性和可获得性,我国统计部门也将“确保统计数据真实、准确、及时”作为首要责任。改革开放以来,随着社会主义市场经济体制的建立和完善,我国统计工作质量明显提高,在统计数据的准确性、及时性和可获得性方面都取得了长足进展。但是,经济统计数据与社会和民众的需求之间仍然存在差距,统计水平提高的过程一直伴随着批评之声。
主要的批评有以下三种。一是对全国GDP(国内生产总值)与各省、自治区、直辖市GDP之间存在误差问题的批评。多年来,国家统计局发布的全国GDP总量均低于各省、自治区、直辖市GDP的加总之和;各省、自治区、直辖市GDP的加权平均增速要高于全国的GDP增速。应当看到,受多种因素影响,不同统计体系之间的统计数据存在不匹配误差是在所难免的。我国统计部门正在努力缩小这类不匹配误差。在问题未彻底解决之前,也实事求是地把误差公布于众,正体现了我国统计部门追求数据真实性的态度。二是对居民消费价格指数CPI与人们的感觉不相符问题的批评。CPI水平取决于市场价格采样的真实性和采样商品与服务的结构。当个人实际消费结构与数据计算结构不完全一致时,往往就会产生不相符的感觉。这说明,统计部门在确保价格采样基础数据真实准确的同时,要适时调整CPI的构成,使之更符合一般居民的消费结构。三是对主要经济指标与某些实物量指标不匹配问题的批评。其实,早在上世纪末亚洲金融危机期间,国外学者就曾对我国的经济增速与用电量增速不匹配的现象提出过质疑,随后他们通过对中国经济结构变化的分析打消了质疑。在当前经济发展新常态下,我国经济结构正在经历重大调整,创新驱动促使经济增长质量逐步提高,绿色发展带来单位GDP能耗逐年明显下降,这必然会使主要宏观经济指标与能耗、钢铁使用量、用电量、铁路货运量等重要实物量指标的结构关系发生变化,于是就会出现所谓的不匹配问题。
那么,对于批评之声应该采取什么态度呢?从主观意愿和客观效果出发,可以将批评之声划分为四种类型。
第一种,对我国统计工作存在的问题表达不满,提出批评和建议。虽然有些批评是尖锐刺耳的,但总体而言是建设性的、善意的。应该吸收其合理建议,使我国经济统计数据能够跟上社会主义市场经济体制完善的步伐,让统计数据不仅能够真实反映经济社会发展和人民生活状况,而且能够与国际接轨、进行国际比较。
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