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印尼财政预算意在释放积极信号

2017-08-15 07:55:46   中国青年网

自2008年国际金融危机以来,财政赤字和政府债务一直是印尼经济改革的焦点和难点。无论是《2017年政府预算修正案》,还是2018年财政预算方案,印尼扩大财政赤字率的初衷都是要释放积极信号、重建市场信心。

近日,印尼国会以多数票通过了《2017年政府预算修正案》。该修正案的重点是将今年财政赤字率从去年的2.41%提升至2.92%,总额扩大至约300亿美元。对此,印尼财长斯莉表示,无需对政府赤字或债务过度担心,“我们仍在安全区间:今年上半年税收增长率较去年同期的2.5%又提高了7个百分点,政府对完成今年征税指标有信心;同时,上半年财政赤字率仅为1.29%,大幅低于去年同期的1.82%”。斯莉认为,政府支出指标通常仅能完成95%到97%。因此,到今年年底,印尼财政赤字率将在2.76%左右。

这项预算修正案意在释放积极信号,加快印尼经济发展。

自2008年国际金融危机以来,财政赤字和政府债务一直是印尼经济改革的焦点和难点。其实,早在《2017年政府预算修正案》通过前,国会就专门要求斯莉出席听证会,讨论2018年印尼财政预算方案,尤其是财政赤字问题。当时,斯莉坦承,印尼政府必须严肃面对连续多年出现的财政赤字。同时,她也指出,“由于公共支出和能源补贴下半年均可能需要追加,2017年赤字敞口呈现抬头趋势,预计明年政府还需发债,增发规模将占GDP的0.3%到0.5%之间”。

据印尼财政部消息,2018年预计总预算在1655亿美元至1768亿美元之间,较2017年增长5.8%至13%之间。财政部所提预算方案有五大要点:一是总体税率将提高至11%到12%,财政收入占GDP比例将随之提高至12.9%到14.1%,税收和非税收入占比分别为30.9%和48.6%;二是公共支出占GDP比例约在9.1%上下,仍将聚焦基础设施建设、教育、医疗保健等领域;三是向地方转移支付占GDP比例在5.6%到5.9%之间,中央政府及各部门仍将保持减支态势;四是财政赤字规模较2017年将进一步收窄,占GDP比例将降至1.9%到2.3%之间;五是通货膨胀率、失业率和贫困人口比例将分别控制在2.5%到4.5%、5%到5.3%、9.5%到10%之间,基尼系数和人类发展指数分别保持在0.38和0.715左右。

斯莉表示,无论是《2017年政府预算修正案》,还是2018年财政预算方案,其初衷都是要释放积极信号、重建市场信心,“例如经济增速预期,政府一开始向国会提出的方案是5.4%到6.1%,最终确定的指标保持了审慎乐观。再如征税完成率,从目前来看,2017年完成预期目标的可能性很大,展现了前一阶段税收政策改革的初步成果”。

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