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“新股不败”神话渐趋褪色(市场观察)

2017-08-14 04:13:05   中国青年网

近期,电连技术、勘设股份等股票上市3个交易日便打开“涨停板”,A股新股正呈现加速“开板”迹象。在业界人士看来,随着IPO(首次公开募股)常态化不断推进,“炒新热”开始降温,“新股不败”神话渐趋褪色;新股次新股分化行情之下,其投资逻辑也正在面临调整,投资者应对相关风险予以关注。

多只新股加速“开板”行情分化

在不少业界人士看来,新股上市后“连板”数量减少已十分常见。据记者统计,今年以来,上市后连续涨停数不超过5个的新股已有超过40只。而在2016年,涨停板数不超过5个的新股仅约10只。

部分新股加速“开板”,次新股的炒作也日趋“降温”。同花顺数据库“新股和次新股指数”显示,次新股板块行情已连续4个月回调。近期,在没有明显利空消息的情况下,华体科技、杭州园林等次新股均出现股价调整。

但同时,一些新股的走势依然十分强劲。8月9日,备受关注的基因测序上市公司华大基因首次打开“一字涨停板”,但不久后再次封停,迎来了其登陆创业板以来的第19个涨停板,股价同时冲破百元大关,已超过前期各大券商给出的最高目标价。开板后,华大基因出现大幅换手,并于11日跌停,股价调整至百元以下。

申万宏源等券商认为,在次新股板块迎来理性市场预期的背景下,新股次新股将不断呈现分化行情,业绩成为衡量估值的主要依据。

多重原因致“新股不败”神话褪色

长期以来,在丰厚的炒新收益刺激下,部分投资者热衷于“炒新炒小炒差”,也影响了股市健康成长。不少市场人士认为,随着IPO常态化不断推进,供给增加降低了新股的稀缺性,“炒新热”开始降温,促使“新股不败”神话日渐褪色。

统计数据显示,2016年共有227家企业成功IPO。截至目前,今年共有296家公司上市。“IPO扩容从根本上改变了二级市场新股和次新股的供求关系,新股上市连续拉出涨停板的现象也会逐渐减少。”武汉科技大学金融证券研究所所长董登新表示。

“市场参与交易的资金总体还是偏紧的,在上半年的金融板块为代表的‘漂亮50’和最近2个月的钢铁稀土为代表的资源板块走势强劲的背景下,炒作次新股的资金减少,同时影响次新股板块走势。”广州民信投资管理有限公司投资总监廖伟华说。

此外,部分次新股一季报、中报出现业绩“变脸”,也受到市场参与各方广泛关注。前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙等专家表示,盈利下降的次新公司中,除了少数上市前进行利润“包装”外,大多还是由于宏观经济下行压力较大或行业整体状况不佳所致。特别是新上市公司以中小市值居多,抵御外部环境变化的能力相对较弱。

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