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未来五年中国金融发展走势

2017-08-14 03:18:40   中国青年网

李稻葵

自1997年亚洲金融危机爆发以来,中央每五年召开一次全国金融工作会议,每次均带来金融格局的重要变化。2017年全国金融工作会议强调用改革来促使金融体系为实体经济服务,防控金融风险,加强金融监管。

中国金融业发展的三大“超前”

我认为,当前中国金融业的问题可以用三大“超前”发展来总结。

第一个“超前”发展是金融体系的流动性超过了实体经济的实际需要。2008年国际金融危机爆发以来,中国经济的流动性不断攀升,按广义货币计算,现在已经约为实体经济的200%,不管是看绝对量还是看相对GDP的比重,都处于全球第一。

有人讲金融体系既要避免“黑天鹅”,又要提防“灰犀牛”,中国金融体系最大的“灰犀牛”,就是流动性严重超前于实体经济的需要。在发达经济体中,金融资产的存量,尤其是固定收益的金融资产存量并不低于中国,但是他们的结构与中国的不同。中国经济中流动性金融资产,即银行存款加货币的存量,远远高于债券的存量,而美国等发达经济体却相反。这就为中国的金融稳定埋下了隐患。

第二,部分金融服务超前于实体经济的发展。这主要体现为大量的金融交易都是自我循环、自娱自乐的。例如银行之间的拆借十分活跃,银行间大量的理财产品,其背后的支撑其实是银行间的相互拆借。非银行机构与银行机构之间也有大量的、正常业务之外的混业拆借。保险业资金在前一段时间也是过多地流入了股市等领域。这种自我循环式的发展表现为金融行业所产生的附加值虚高,在2016年曾经高达GDP的9%左右,已经接近甚至超过发达经济体的水平。

第三个“超前”发展,是整个金融市场的发展超前于监管体系和法律体制的约束力。金融市场与其他市场的不同之处在于,金融市场交易复杂,跨时区跨地域,参与人群极其庞杂,易于引发社会群体情绪波动,因此,金融交易必须要有强有力的监管,还必须要有法制的力量介入。

未来五年中国金融发展的大脉络

根据以上分析,落实2017年全国金融工作会议精神,很有可能带来未来五年中国金融业发展六大走势。

第一,货币存量增速有望逐步下行,而低于名义GDP增速。货币存量增速相对GDP增速的下降,是化解系统性金融风险的根本要求,也是这次全国金融工作会议的基本精神。今年上半年以来,由于加强了对银行间以及金融机构之间的拆借管理,银行体系创造货币的速度放缓,出现了多年以来久违的广义货币增速低于名义GDP的良好局面。这一格局在未来五年有可能继续发展,其结果是银行间拆借的活跃度会持续下降,资金紧密运行的态势将会持续存在。这对中国金融业发展并不是坏事,会促使各金融机构更加精准地调控自身的资金需求,提高资金管理的水平,更会带来一大批中小银行的合并重组。

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