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二季报显示,南方成份精选二季度净值增长率大涨10.77%,超越同期业绩比较基准近6个百分点,而同期大盘微跌0.93%。wind数据显示,截至8月7日,该基金今年以来的收益率为15.5%,在504只偏股型混合基金中排名前15%身位左右。自2007年5月14日成立以来,该基金的累计收益率为100.75%。
回顾二季度,张原、黄春逢表示,二季度股票市场的投资机会进一步向低估值蓝筹和白马股集中,许多基本面优秀但市值偏大的行业龙头估值折价逐步被填平,而许多成长潜力较好但市值偏小的成长股的估值溢价也在逐步消失,大小盘风格的估值差达到了较高的水平。在这种市场环境下,南方成份精选二季度小幅稳步提升了股票仓位。在行业配置上,一方面坚定持有银行、保险、家电等低估值蓝筹股,充分享受到了二季度大盘蓝筹的估值提升带来的投资收益。另一方面,也重点配置了智能手机产业链、通信等行业的白马龙头公司,同样取得了较好的投资收益。
展望三季度,基于对下半年流动性的判断,张原、黄春逢对后市并不悲观。他们认为,宏观经济具有韧性,但趋势上大概率前高后低,而随着M2增速回落,金融去杠杆初见成效,市场系统性风险出现的概率已显著下降,下半年市场利率中枢或将出现边际回落,而流动性的改善无疑将带来市场整体的估值修复。风格上,未来的市场风格将会更加均衡,一些估值合理,具有明显竞争优势且成长潜力突出的成长股在流动性边际改善的预期之下,或将有更大的估值修复弹性。
谈及下半年的投资思路,张原、黄春逢表示,“下半年,在继续持有低估值蓝筹及白马的同时,我们将进一步加大对优质成长股的研究力度,力争从中寻找到理想的投资机会。从主题上看,5G建设、消费电子、新能源车在下半年都将有较多的事件催化,从而带来相应的主题投资机会。”
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