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央广网8月9日消息(记者马文静)渣打银行大中华区首席经济学家丁爽8日表示,今年上半年中国经济增长态势稳健,经济没有“硬着陆”风险,这为去杠杆提供了有利条件。 在8日举行的渣打中国中小企业信心指数论坛上,丁爽分析称,今年上半年中国经济增长速度6.9%,从近期经济指标来看,前端经济没有“硬着陆”风险。“在这种情况下,中国实现全年经济增长6.5%的目标,应该说比较安心,没有太大的风险”。 中国经济稳健的增长态势为去杠杆打开了窗口。丁爽指出,中国将利用此时间窗口解决中国经济长期面临的结构性问题。他同时指出,中国不会出现无序去杠杆的现象,只是首先降低杠杆增长速度,但并非要求债务、负债率等立马下降,预计未来债务占中国GDP比重上升的趋势将减缓。 值得注意的是,去杠杆对中小企业的影响或比其他企业更为明显。丁爽指出,短期来看,中小企业在融资方面将面临暂时困难。7月渣打中国中小企业信心指数(SMEI)由5月的54.7升至56.0,但银行及非银行融资成本指标由6月的45.8和47.9分别降至44.3和46.2。金融去杠杆背景下,自今年年初以来企业债券收益率和货币市场利率均已上升。 不过,丁爽表示,随着金融去杠杆的持续深入,资金空转造成的资金成本抬升问题有望得到解决,长期来看,去杠杆将利好中小企业发展。
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