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稳中向好,中国经济联动世界发展

2017-08-08 14:38:58   央广网

当今世界,经济全球化走到十字路口,中国经济能否实现强劲、可持续、平衡和包容增长,这不仅是中国的问题,也是关乎世界经济的问题。就中国而言,其经济在过去近40年一直保持着强劲增长,即便经济进入新常态后表现也是可圈可点。国家统计局前不久发布的中国经济半年报就显示,中国经济保持中高速增长,GDP同比增长6.9%,高于此前公布的6.5%的增长目标预期,也超出了大多数观察家的预期。

当前诸如美国孤立主义情绪抬头、欧洲排外情绪上升等等,都堪为世界经济发展面临的不稳定不确定因素。作为全球第二大经济体,中国上半年国内生产总值(GDP)同比增长6.9%,增速与一季度持平,经济增速连续八个季度保持在6.7%-6.9%的区间,成绩单可谓靓丽。国家发改委也发文点评中国经济,认为存在经济稳定在合理区间、经济结构不断调优、发展新动力明显增强、空间格局进一步优化、增长的包容性和获得感增强五大亮点。

中国经济增长能否持续?过去几十年中,国际上常常会有这种质疑的声音。先前在中国经济半年报诸多经济增长数据亮相后,多家国际机构随即就纷纷上调对今年中国经济增长的预期目标。其中,国际货币基金组织(IMF)已是今年第三次上调中国经济增长预期目标至6.7%。再往前看,在获得穆迪最高信用评级半个月后,亚投行再获三大国际评级机构之一的惠誉给予AAA的最高信用评级。这桩桩件件,都堪为对唱衰论者的最好回击。

抓创新就是抓发展,谋创新就是谋未来。随着不断深入推进信息化与工业化深度融合,着力培育战略性新兴产业,从要素投资驱动转向创新驱动,创新驱动的“原动力”作用已经日渐显现。高技术制造业和装备制造业上半年同比就分别增长13.1%和11.5%,并且在股市估值较高,反映出市场对未来增长的预期。可以肯定,中国高技术制造业的崛起将对全球产生重大影响,而且其对中国产业结构转型升级的积极影响也已日渐体现出来。

互联网经济发展迅猛新常态要有新动力,互联网在这方面可以大有作为。第40次《中国互联网络发展状况统计报告》显示,截至2017年6月中国网民规模达7.51亿,规模占全球网民总数的五分之一。《报告》还提出,2017年上半年商务交易类应用持续高速增长,网络购物、网上外卖和在线旅行预订用户规模分别增长10.2%、41.6%和11.5%。新技术、新产业、新模式、新应用快速涌现,成为拉动经济增长和带动经济全面转型的引擎。

依靠出口等“三驾马车”协调拉动经济结构转变,也是“十三五”时期经济增长的主要任务。统计数据显示,2016年中国货物进出口总额就已达到24.3万亿元,居世界第一位,占世界贸易总额11%以上,一般贸易进出口占55.1%。今年上半年,我国对传统贸易伙伴欧盟、美国和东盟出口分别增长15.7%、19.3%和16%,对俄罗斯、巴基斯坦、波兰和哈萨克斯坦等“一带一路”沿线国家出口也保持高速增长,让经济增长有了强劲动力。

世界经济发展离不开中国,中国继续发展也需要世界。尽管与前几年8%的经济增速相比,而今6.9%的数字只能算是中速,但作为全球第二大经济体,中国对世界经济增长已经做出了巨大贡献。就以2016年为例,中国对世界经济增长贡献率就高达34.7%,堪为世界经济增长的“第一引擎”。而今负责任的中国一直在努力推动各国树立利益共同体和命运共同体意识,比如提出的“一带一路”倡议就有助于实现全球经济联动发展。

“各国经济,相通则共进,相闭则各退。”下行压力较大语境下,中国经济保持中高速增长,GDP同比增长6.9%,已经足以表明稳中向好步伐更加稳健,中国仍是全球经济增长最强劲的国家之一,仍是世界经济增长的主要推动力。从杭州到达沃斯,从北京到汉堡,中国也一直在以实际行动聚焦发展这个根本性问题,释放各国发展潜力,实现经济大融合、发展大联动、成果大共享。稳中向好,中国经济联动世界发展,将给世界人民带来市场福利。

(杨飞:陕西省重点中国特色社会主义理论体系研究中心研究员)

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