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连续三月走强 专家:人民币中长期依然是个升值货币

2017-08-04 14:32:31   

中国日报网8月3日电 人民币对美元汇率已经连续三个月表现强劲,近期市场看涨人民币汇率的热情不断高涨。今年年初至今,人民币对美元累计升值幅度达3.22%。

英国《金融时报》撰文称,年初以来数据表明,人民币稳健的走势大大超乎市场预期。特朗普新政面临很多新的不确定因素,美元指数大跌,今年前七个月,美元指数下跌了8.8%。截至7月底,人民币对美元升值了3.3%,与年初较为浓烈的贬值预期形成鲜明对比。

花旗银行中国首席经济学家刘利刚和高级经济学家余向荣在《金融时报》撰文表示,中国经济基本面可能变得更加有利于人民币。上半年,中国GDP同比增长6.9%,形势好于预期。同期,CPI上升1.4%、PPI增长6.6%,通货膨胀风险依然较低。而且,去产能政策叠加周期改善使企业盈利强势恢复,企业部门资产负债表得以修复。

文章称,下半年,基建和制造业投资有望保持稳健,政策环境有望更加平稳。总体来看,这些因素意味着人民币有望保持稳定,甚至面临一定的升值压力。中国今年有望在2010年以来连续六年下降之后迎来首次全年GDP增速上升。

文章还表示,中国经济改革的政治意愿加强,改革路径变得更加清晰,再加上中国资本市场更加开放,人民币中长期依然是个升值货币。

“推动近日人民币对美元中间价大幅上涨的因素源自中美债券收益率利差的变动。”国泰君安期货研究员王洋表示,人民币汇率中间价形成机制中“逆周期调节因子”在美元连续走弱的背景下发挥作用,也导致人民币汇率中间价出现上行。

7月初,“债券通”中的“北向通”正式上线试运行。对此,中国人民大学财政金融学院教授何青日前表示,这有助于更多的海外企业和居民持有人民币资产,增加人民币在国际市场份额。当前人民币对美元汇率双向波动的态势逐渐形成,人民币汇率趋于稳定,有助于增加人民币资产的吸引力和定价。

(编辑:田阿萌 富文佳)

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