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稳中待升 压力尚存

2017-08-04 06:38:29   中国青年网

2017年7月份,“经济日报-中国邮政储蓄银行小微企业运行指数”为46.3,较上月回落0.2个点,本月小微企业运行有所下滑,但整体比较平稳,预计在未来几个月内基本能够保持较好势头。

从国内经济形势来看,在2017年上半年,我国宏观经济稳中求进,积极向好。二季度GDP同比增速6.9%,与一季度持平。从产业结构看,工业结构中制造业表现较强,同时第三产业继续维持高速增长;从需求侧看,消费数据、尤其是服务类消费表现好于预期,固定资产投资符合预期,进出口也对经济作出贡献。另外,企业效益尤其是利润指标走势持续改善,宏观经济的微观基础发生积极变化。整体而言,经济运行基础比较好,但企稳基础尚不牢固,下行压力仍然存在。比如,经济运行中原材料采购价格的大幅攀升,制造业尤其是中下游行业利润空间缩窄,企业实际融资成本上升等问题依然存在,实体经济暗藏着一定的不确定性。

从外部环境来看,国际经济环境风险较大。美联储加息、“缩表”的经济决策,无论对中国还是对世界其他国家而言,都存在着较大冲击。同时,全球政治形势多变、经济体需求疲软、资金外流等问题都给我国宏观经济带来了一定的挑战,尤其面对发达国家对我国产业结构的低端锁定,新型经济体的竞争挤压,中国制造受到了严重挑战,低端产品严重过剩、高端产品严重短缺的产业结构给国内供给侧结构性改革带来了不确定性。

2017年7月份,小微指数总指数为46.3,较上月回落0.2个点,小微企业运行有所下滑。

各分项指标指数呈现“一升七降”态势,除成本指数为上升0.1个点外,其它七个分项指标均有下降。其中,市场指数为43.8,绩效指数为45.8,均较上月下降了0.1个点,直观表明小微企业在7月份的市场需求以及整体经营状况下降。作为反映小微企业短期经营状况的先行指标,采购指数为45.6,较上月下降0.2个点,采购状况有所收缩。扩张指数为45.4,与上月相比下降了0.1个点,用工需求以及新增投资需求都有不同程度的下降。信心指数为48.3,下降0.1个点,反映企业家对当前和未来经济发展形势、企业经营情况的预期比较保守,信心略有下降。融资指数为49.1,与上月相比下降0.3个点,融资需求有所降低,市场积极性不高。风险指数为51.8,较上月降低了0.3个点,但仍在荣枯线之上,表明小微企业的经营环境尚可。

从小微企业六大区域指数来看,呈现“一平五降”态势,东北地区为42.6,与上月持平。小微指数最高的是中南地区,其次是华东地区,由于这两地的经济基础较好,并且有相关政策的拉动和扶持,相比其他地区而言,经济增长态势良好,小微企业的发展基础以及发展前景都具有一定的优势,但与上月相比,两地的下降态势也比较明显,主要是由于绩效指数以及风险指数下拉所致。小微指数最低的区域是西北地区,为42.9,且处于下行通道,表明该区域小微企业的运行状况不佳,面临多方面的下行压力及相应的风险。

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