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外储规模连续5个月上升 较年初上升1.5%
2017-07-08 11:42:29 中国经济网
国家外汇管理局有关负责人认为,6月,我国跨境资金流动延续稳定势头,外汇供求仍保持相对平衡状态;国际金融市场上,非美元货币相对美元总体升值,资产价格小幅变动,外汇储备所投资的货币和资产之间发挥了此消彼长的分散化效应,外汇储备规模小幅微升。
交通银行金融研究中心高级研究员刘健认为,6月外储增幅小于前两个月。外储回升仍主要得益于非美资产带来的估值提升,6月美元指数下跌1.4%,欧元、英镑对美元均有不同程度升值,粗略估计汇率估值对外储贡献约100亿美元。不过,6月美、欧、日长期国债收益率均有所上升,债券价格下跌一定程度上对冲了汇率估值作用。加之夏季出境旅游购汇增加,以及境外上市的中国公司年中集中派发股息等季节性因素,也抵消了一部分汇率估值的拉动作用。因此,6月外储增幅远低于4月和5月。
国家外汇管理局有关负责人预计,未来我国经济增长的稳定性和协调性在不断提升,从产业支撑、发展动力、发展信心、发展环境等多个方面分析,我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中向好的态势将继续巩固、持续。随着金融市场扩大开放,外汇市场健康发展,市场预期稳定,跨境资金流动和外汇市场供求基本平衡,将进一步推动外汇储备规模保持稳定。
刘健表示,短期内美元指数进一步下跌空间有限,汇率估值对外汇储备贡献度可能下降,并可能成为外储回升的重要制约因素。但在人民币汇率定力增强背景下,资本外流对外储的负面影响也较小,预计外储规模有望基本稳定。
(原标题:外储规模连续5个月上升 较年初上升1.5%)
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