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5月进出口数据好于预期 专家:进一步回稳向好仍存不确定因素

2017-06-09 08:12:53   国际在线

国际在线报道(记者 李琳): 中国海关总署8日发布统计数据,5月份,中国进出口总值2.35万亿元人民币,同比增长18.3%。其中,出口增长15.5%;进口增长22.1%,数据双双好于预期。专家表示,5月进出口延续了今年以来回稳向好的势头,但未来进一步向好仍存不确定因素。

数据显示,今年5月份,中国出口1.32万亿元人民币,同比增长15.5%;进口1.03万亿元,增长22.1%;贸易顺差2816亿元,收窄3.4%。其中,出口和进口的同比增幅均好于预期。商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院国际市场研究所副所长白明认为,5月的数据延续了今年以来外贸进出口持续回稳向好的态势。他还表示:“这是我们对外贸易转型升级这些年一系列努力的成果,今年以来逐渐发挥了效应。还有一个,外部环境有所改善,特别是美国经济的改善,释放出了一些机遇,还有欧洲经济、日本经济,总的来说发达国家的经济有所好转了。从我们内在环境来讲,稳增长也是取得了效果,一季度增长6.9%,超出很多人的预期。内部环境、外部都在好转,我们的进出口贸易出现一定的企稳迹象也是合理的。”

当天发布的数据还显示,今年前5个月,中国货物贸易进出口总值10.76万亿元人民币,比去年同期增长19.8%。而前五个月的数据呈现出:一般贸易进出口增长、比重提升;民营企业进出口占比提升;对欧美日东盟等市场进出口增长等特点。白明分析指出,这些特点进一步表明中国外贸结构在进一步优化。他认为,一般贸易进出口增长、比重提升是前五个月中国进出口最大的亮点。他说:“过去我们的加工贸易占去了半壁江山,现在份额在减少,它也需要转型升级,一部分转成了一般贸易,这就有利于打造我们自主知识品牌,提升附加值和技术含量。一般贸易尽管做起来有难度,但是它的成长空间是大的,而且能够释放出内生动力,比如说搞研发,都需要一般贸易去承载。”

海关数据还指出,5月中国外贸出口先导指数为41.1,较上月上升0.4。白明认为,这些数据为未来一段时间外贸进一步回稳奠定了基础,但要继续向好仍存在不确定性。白明说:“大概率来讲先导指数对未来订单环境的指向作用还是比较明显的,但是我们的贸易还要受到诸多因素的影响,比如说我们的国际环境瞬息万变。最主要的贸易增长还是要看我们自己的内生动力,包括我们的转变发展方式,我们外贸发展的产业基础,还有在国际市场上怎么拓展空间?看起来各种数字好转,只能说近期的环境稍微有所改善,但是从回稳到向好是有一定难度的。”

也有业内人士认为,随着房地产调控以及金融去杠杆导致融资成本上升等,中国内需或逐渐走弱、进口或将出现下滑。

此外, 中国海关总署的数据还显示,前5个月,欧盟为中国第一大贸易伙伴,中欧贸易总值1.6万亿元,增长16.1%,占中国外贸总值的14.8%;美国是中国第二大贸易伙伴,中美贸易总值为1.51万亿元,增长21.1%,占中国外贸总值的14%;东盟、日本分别为中国的第三、第四大贸易伙伴,分别占中国进出口总值的12.5%和7.5%。

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