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英国大选频遭恐袭搅局 执政党选情堪忧或影响脱欧谈判

2017-06-07 01:31:14   经济参考报

英国定于6月8日举行议会选举。最新公布的民意调查结果显示,首相特雷莎·梅选情堪忧,恐怕无法实现此前预想的“压倒性胜利”,最终获得的议席数量甚至可能少于上届议会。果真如此,不仅令近期频遭恐袭的英国政局动荡,还有可能冲击本月启动的“脱欧”谈判进程。

特雷莎·梅4月宣布提前举行议会选举,以期拿下更多议席,扩大保守党在议会下院的优势,从而在“脱欧”谈判中“轻装上阵”。当时,在议会下院650个议席中,保守党占据330个。

上届议会已于5月初解散。英国民调机构舆观调查公司5日公布的最新民调结果显示,在即将举行的议会选举中,特雷莎·梅领导的保守党可能获得305个议席。与过半数所需的326个议席相比,还差21个议席。

这项民调同时显示,工党可能获得268个议席,与同类民调显示的261个议席相比有所增加。

特雷莎·梅4月宣布提前选举时,外界曾普遍认为保守党将在选举中大获全胜,甚至把老对手工党“赶尽杀绝”,也有人把她的决定称为一场“政治豪赌”。

从民调来看,这场“政治豪赌”的前景并不被看好。保守党不仅不能把330个议席的数字扩大,反而有缩水之势。

如今,英国遭受恐怖主义袭击的频率大大增加,今年来就已经发生三起袭击事件,为梅的竞选平添不确定性。从2017年3月至今,有三次恐袭阴谋得逞——分别在威斯敏斯特、曼彻斯特和伦敦桥,另外还有五次被成功阻止。选民选择执政党本来出于各种各样的诉求。但是,随着此次选举的临近,如何选出一个能够维护国家安全的领袖是一个绕不过重大问题。

对于梅来说,不仅要面临如何对抗极端主义的问题,保守党一直在压缩警方的预算,也使她广受批评。

随着恐袭事件接连发生,保守党领先优势缩小,工党领袖杰里米·科尔宾5日对特雷莎·梅发起“反攻”,称后者应为英国警察数量锐减而辞职。

特雷莎·梅曾于2010年至2016年担任英国内政大臣,主管警察和国内情报机构事务。

她在任期间,英国警察的数量减少了约两万名。当媒体记者5日向她追问,是否后悔作出这一决定时,她没有正面回答,而是表示反恐经费得到保障,警方也获得了相应权力。

科尔宾接受媒体采访时说,一些人要求特雷莎·梅为此引咎辞职,他表示支持。他说:“不少有责任感的人提出了这一要求。她主导了减少警察数量的工作,现在却说我们存在问题。是的,我们根本不该减少警察数量。”

梅能否胜选也令欧盟充满担忧,“脱欧”谈判进程可能会受到冲击。

在英国正式退出欧盟之前的22个月时间内,谈判失败是主要风险。这将导致在英国的企业和300万欧盟公民处于法律真空当中,并让经济受到干扰。这或许还会让欧盟平白损失数十亿欧元,并可能推迟贸易协议的达成。

欧盟负责协商英国“脱欧”事务的人士担心,特雷莎·梅目前仅有10余席的多数优势,使得她很容易受到党内强硬派的压力,这些强硬派不愿意接受欧盟要求,宁愿特雷莎·梅在达不成协议的情况下“脱欧”。

“我们需要一个足够强大的政府来谈判。”路透社援引一位参与谈判的欧盟高级议员话称。“我们需要一个稳定的合作伙伴。”欧盟负责英国“脱欧”事务谈判的首席代表巴尼耶预计,谈判可能于6月19日启动。获得明显的多数席位优势,是特雷莎·梅在要求提前选举时的愿望,也是许多欧盟高层人士的期望。

原标题:英国大选执政党选情堪忧

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