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国际在线报道(记者 徐艳清):5月24日,国际评级机构穆迪将中国主权信用评级从Aa3下调一级至A1。中国财政部相关负责人当日回应认为,穆迪此举是基于“顺周期”评级的不恰当方法,其关于中国实体经济债务规模将快速增长、相关改革措施难见成效、政府将继续通过刺激政策维持经济增速等观点,在一定程度上高估了中国经济面临的困难,低估了中国政府深化供给侧结构性改革和适度扩大总需求的能力。
所谓“顺周期”评级是指在经济繁荣时评级高估,反之则低估。
穆迪认为未来中国经济增速将持续放缓。中国财政部对此回应称,今年一季度中国GDP增长6.9%,同比加快0.2个百分点,主要经济指标增长好于预期,经济结构持续优化。中国经济“开门红”充分显示出供给侧结构性改革的效果正在不断显现,中国经济有望继续保持平稳较快增长。
穆迪预测,中国政府直接债务2018年将达GDP的40%,2020年将达45%。中国财政部认为,2016年中国政府债务的负债率(债务余额/GDP)为36.7%,低于欧盟60%的警戒线,也低于主要市场经济国家和新兴市场国家水平,风险总体可控。今后,随着中国供给侧结构性改革的不断推进,政府举债受到严格控制,政府债务规模将保持合理增长。2018-2020年中国政府债务风险指标与2016年相比不会发生大的变化。
中国财政部还认为,综合中国预算法、担保法、公司法等法律,穆迪所谓的地方政府融资平台、国有企业等债务水平持续增长会增加政府或有债务的说法,是根本不成立的。这一观点说明一些国际机构对中国法律制度规定缺乏必要的了解。
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