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【老外谈】“一带一路”将为沿线国家经济增长提供有效支撑

2017-05-14 19:51:17   

作者:高路易Louis Kuijs(英国)

2013年9月习近平主席提出的“一带一路”倡议旨在通过加强全球联结、改善基础设施,将中国与亚欧、中东和非洲更好地连接起来。该倡议希望在“丝绸之路经济带”和“21世纪海上丝绸之路”的框架下,打造多个经济走廊地带。

过去四年,“一带一路”倡议逐渐获得新项目和新融资的青睐,比如中国主导建设的境外铁路旗舰项目全长418公里的中老铁路,投资460亿美元(约合3175亿元人民币)的中巴经济走廊,以及亚洲基础设施投资银行和丝路基金的创立,这些都是很好的例证。尽管项目总数和融资总额难以量化,但仅国家开发银行一家金融机构在2015年就为超过900个项目准备了8900亿美元(约合6.14万亿元人民币)资金,这从一个侧面凸显了“一带一路”任务的规模之大、量级之高。

一方面,亚洲基础设施投资银行等新的多边机构开始在项目融资中发挥积极作用;另一方面,绝大多数“一带一路”项目的资金实际上是来自参与项目的双方。除了国家开发银行和中国进出口银行之外,我们估算中国四大国有银行在2016年向“一带一路”沿线的经济体提供了900亿美元(约合6212亿元人民币)的贷款。我们预计未来这一趋势还将持续下去。

不过,如果同基础设施建设开支和“一带一路”倡议覆盖的广阔区域的需求相比较,就算把每年的双边和多边融资资金,包括来自世界银行和亚洲发展银行等国际多边金融机构的资金都加起来,也是不太多的。据亚洲发展银行预测,到2030年该地区基础设施投资需求每年将达到1.7万亿美元(约合11.7万亿元人民币)。

“一带一路”倡议将促进沿线各国的基础设施建设,让一些世界上最不发达的地区受益,同时,完善的基础设施将会推动贸易和投资、创造新的市场寻求、促进全球发展。我们预测,“一带一路”覆盖区域对全球经济增长贡献率将大幅上涨,从2016年的68%提高至2050年的80%。当然,该地区也面临经济下行的风险,像是全球贸易保护主义和国内供给侧制约,但基础设施发展、区域贸易和投资合作会抵消这些负面影响。

由于“一带一路”倡议带来新的海外需求,我们预测中国的建筑公司将从在很大程度上受益。不过,中国需要确保自身与其他国家的经济往来不会失衡,避免贸易赤字引发紧张局势。

总之,中国向“一带一路”倡议投入了众多政治、能源和金融资源,该倡议在过去四年间取得了令人瞩目的进展。我们预计,这一倡议将对参与经济体的长期增长和发展产生支撑作用。此外,“一带一路”倡议将为中国提供一个在加强全球金融治理方面发挥更大作用的平台,有助于提升中国的国际影响力、实现人民币的国际化。

(本文作者为牛津经济研究院经济学家)

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