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美俄斗而不破 白宫将如何“待客”拉夫罗夫

2017-05-11 08:02:59   新华网

美国白宫官员9日说,总统唐纳德·特朗普将于当地时间10日上午在白宫会见到访的俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫。这是特朗普上任以来接待的最高级别俄罗斯官员,也是拉夫罗夫4年来首次到访白宫。白宫说,拉夫罗夫还将同美国国务卿雷克斯·蒂勒森会谈。今年4月初蒂勒森访问莫斯科,先后同拉夫罗夫和俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京举行会谈。

对拉夫罗夫这次访问,媒体此前未做报道。当前美俄关系仍处在存有变数的敏感阶段,9日特朗普宣布解职联邦调查局局长詹姆斯·科米。科米此前证实,联邦调查局正在就特朗普团队与俄罗斯关系展开调查。对特朗普这时候会见拉夫罗夫,中国社科院俄欧亚所俄罗斯外交研究室副主任、研究员李勇慧认为,此举显示白宫和克里姆林宫改善关系的意愿,不过在既有结构性矛盾下,美俄关系斗而不破的格局还会延续。

问:特朗普在白宫会见拉夫罗夫这一消息,此前媒体无任何“放风”,是否显得突然?

李勇慧:是比较突然,但是联想到近一段时间来俄美之间的胡萝卜加大棒的外交斡旋,这个会面也是必然吧。

问:特朗普不久前同普京第三次通电话,这次白宫“待客”显示怎样的政治倾向?

李勇慧:俄美双方目前正紧锣密鼓地筹备元首会晤,体现出双方对双边关系改善的重视。从美国方面看,说明特朗普对美俄关系继续期待,特别在战略稳定和国际安全方面仍然需要俄罗斯的配合;也说明特朗普对美国主导国际事务的主动权不会轻易放弃,但是需要俄罗斯的协助。特别在国内执政地位尚未完全巩固的情况下,特朗普表现出外交上的果断性和持续性。

问:主宾会谈什么?

李勇慧:谈话将涉及地区热点问题、双边关系中根深蒂固的难题,以及解除经济制裁的问题,还会进一步商讨两国总统会晤时所能达成的成果目标。具体来说,首先会谈叙利亚问题,包括为降低当地冲突设立安全区的问题,这对于缓和叙利亚的局势、巩固停火成果非常重要。双方还会谈及针对乌克兰危机的明斯克协议的执行情况,以及北约在东欧部署反导系统的问题。朝鲜问题一定会涉及。鉴于俄罗斯在半岛事务中有一定的影响力,美国也将寻求俄方的政治支持。目前双方计划德国G20峰会期间实现首脑会晤,拉夫罗夫此行有准备会晤内容和成果的目的。

问:当前美俄关系依然复杂敏感,未来两国关系会如何进展?

李勇慧:特朗普执政以来,美俄关系成为美国外交的焦点,也是美国媒体和政治舆论的关键词之一。特朗普曾指出,改善与俄关系势在必行,没必要与俄罗斯为敌。

到目前为止,俄美关系改善曲折前行,美国内强大的反俄派限制了特朗普对俄罗斯伸出橄榄枝。如何摆脱民主党和共和党建制派对其对俄政策的牵制,是特朗普需要精心应对的。所以,美国务卿蒂勒森此前表示美国外交政策应与价值观解绑,外交政策应当改变,这也可以理解为美方对俄美关系改善作出的意识形态上的策应。

在地区热点问题上,美俄是互有所需,不可能绕过对方单独行事。俄罗斯也表示,改善俄美关系必须抛弃奥巴马时期的对俄打压政策。但是,俄美关系改善主要取决于国家战略利益是否一致,而不是领导人的意愿,因此,尽管俄美关系有望回暖,但首先要稳住两国关系并避免发生冲突。综合看,两国的结构性矛盾没有本质变化,在可预见未来,两国关系仍将合作与竞争并行,维持斗而不破的相对均衡态势。(夏文辉)(新华社专特稿)

原标题:美俄斗而不破 白宫将如何“待客”拉夫罗夫

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