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社科院预计2017年中国大中城市房价涨幅将回落

2017-05-09 16:48:20   国际在线

国际在线报道(记者 乔全兴):中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所和社会科学文献出版社9日在北京联合发布的《房地产蓝皮书:中国房地产发展报告(2017)》预计,2017年中国房地产市场将进入调整期,大中城市住宅价格涨幅有所回落。

2016年,中国房地产市场在去库存的背景下经历了新一轮快速上涨,居民购房需求集中快速释放,市场成交量持续上升。针对这种情况,官方调控思路由“去库存”转向“抑泡沫和去库存并重”。蓝皮书预计2017年中国房地产市场将进入调整期,热点城市调控政策将继续收紧,市场监管力度加强,而三四线城市政策仍将保持平稳。蓝皮书副主编、社科院城市发展与环境研究所副研究员王业强说:“我们总体的判断是进入了一个量化调整的阶段,房地产市场的分化现象将会进一步深化和强化。一线城市正在步入存量房时代,新房的开发建设市场空间不断压缩,城市产业结构升级带来的存量土地和存量物业的盘活,应该是未来房地产市场主题。房屋租赁市场也有望成为房地产行业发展的新机遇。对于二线过热城市,由于房价上涨空间被透支,量价回调应该是一个大的事件。”

蓝皮书认为,虽然房地产市场分化将进一步强化,但部分城市仍存在市场机会,特别是那些具有产业和人口支撑的城市,房地产市场发展仍具备潜力。王业强介绍说:“对于那些具有产业和人口支撑的城市,有可能成为下一个市场发展的风口。比如天津、郑州、武汉等城市,受益于这些城市群的发展,城市的潜力将逐步显现,量价将进入平稳增长的周期。对于西部节点城市,比如重庆、成都、西安房价相对较低,市场发展有望进入一个新阶段。此外,位于大城市周边的小城市或者是自身具有产业优势的三、四线城市,房地产市场发展仍具备潜力。”

自去年底以来,各地方政府不断加强对房地产市场调控力度,政策效果进一步显现。4月25日,中央政治局会议提出,要加快形成促进房地产市场稳定发展的长效机制。对此,出席发布会的社科院城市竞争力研究中心主任倪鹏飞表示:“从市场的情况来看,有房地产稳定发展的市场环境正在形成。首先支持住房的需求部分替代约束炒房的需求。其次,住房供给结构正在调整和重塑。三是金融市场逐渐恢复理性,并保持活跃。四是土地结构趋向合理,并富有弹性。 ”

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