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人大国发院:中国经济基本面运行平稳

2017-09-16 11:11:51   中国经济网

经济日报-中国经济网北京9月16日讯 (记者 熊丽)在9月16日举办的“中国宏观经济论坛”上,中国人民大学国家发展与战略研究院研究员、经济学院教授王孝松代表课题组发布的宏观经济月度数据分析报告指出,在经历了半年以上的企稳增长后,中国宏观经济蕴含着下行风险。但细分指标表明,中国各行业的发展结构趋于优化,消费品零售业出现新的增长点;价格指数和景气指数表明,中国经济总体上仍处于企稳向好的发展区间;对外贸易也正在不断恢复活力,为推动经济持续复苏做出了较大贡献。

工业增加值呈现全面增长态势

2017年8月,规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长6%,比7月份降低了0.4个百分点。环比增长率为0.46%,增速比7月提高0.05个百分点。1-8月份,规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.7%。

王孝松指出,无论是对细分门类、行业,还是产品进行考察,工业增加值均呈现出全面增长的态势。例如,41个大类行业中有36个行业实现增加值同比增长,596种产品中有377种实现同比增长。而且,通用设备制造业、专用设备制造业、汽车制造业、电气机械和器材制造业,以及计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业增长率均超过10%,这些资本、技术密集型行业增长迅猛,表明中国制造业发展的结构趋于优化,经济稳中向好的趋势逐渐明朗。

“地区分化十分明显,东北地区仍然面临着增速缓慢的状况。”王孝松分析说,8月份,东部地区增加值同比增长5.4%,中部地区增长7.4%,西部地区增长4.0%,东北地区增长2.2%。东、中、西部三个地区的增长率已经有所放缓,而东北地区增长率达到年内最高点,但仍然远落后于其他三个地区的增长率,全面振兴东北的任务十分艰巨。

几个关键类型的固定资产投资增长率提高

数据显示,2017年1-8月,全国非农业固定资产投资39.4万亿元,同比增长7.8%,增速比前7个月下降0.5个百分点。

王孝松分析指出,几个关键类型的固定资产投资增长率提高,表明经济基本面仍将持续企稳向好。尽管工业投资整体回落,但电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业投资增长2.6%,增速提高了1个百分点。水热气电投资是经济运行的晴雨表,该行业投资增幅提高,表明企业开工率足、企业家信心饱满。另一方面,尽管基础设施投资整体回落,但水利管理业、道路运输业和铁路运输业的增速有所提高。水利和运输是基础设施中的重要组成部分,也是长期推动中国经济增长的关键部门,这些行业的投资增速提高,意味着中国经济并未偏离整体上行的轨道。

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