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近期金价表现不俗 9月8日触及1349.29美元/盎司

2017-09-14 07:56:30   中国经济网

▲ 9月1日公布的美国8月份非农就业数据低于预期,加上地缘局势升级,金价跳涨至每盎司1330美元关口,预计下周美联储将开启首次缩表,投资者需要多加关注

近期,金价表现不俗,维持在1330美元/盎司左右。尤其在9月8日触及1349.29美元/盎司,为2016年8月份以来一年的最高水平。

业内人士表示,美元疲软走弱以及美债收益率下降是支撑金价起舞的最重要原因。在汇研汇语资产管理公司CEO张强看来,近期国际金价走势强劲,吸引了诸多投资者的眼球。人民币在国际贸易中逐步崭露头角,在交易和储备方面的作用开始显现,这样一来就削弱了美元国际地位,加速了全球去美元化的进程。由于黄金价格与美元关联,在美元指数持续走低的背景下,进一步为黄金价格的强势奠定了基础。

“9月1日公布的美国8月份非农就业数据低于预期,加上地缘局势升级,金价直接跳涨至每盎司1330美元关口。飓风‘哈维’造成的经济损失可能影响美国GDP的增长,美国债券收益率和美元接近低点。由于黄金是以美元计价,因此对美元利率很敏感,美元和美债收益率的下跌是近期金价上涨的主要原因。”招金期货贵金属研究院分析师孟妍妍补充说。

此外,近期黄金价格上涨还有一部分原因是受到期金市场大量多头买盘的推动,且黄金ETF也出现了大规模流入。来自渣打银行的统计数据显示,截至9月8日,纽约商品交易所(COMEX)期金市场的净多头持仓是2016年10月份以来的最高水平,空头持仓则处在2012年12月份以来的最低水平。在过去7周里,期金多头持仓增加了637吨,创下最快增持纪录。8月份黄金ETF流入30吨,9月份至今则已经有近30吨流入。

对于金价未来走势,多位分析师表示近期金价或将保持持续上扬态势。张强认为,就当前市场格局来看,美元指数尚未见底,美国经济复苏的状况并不理想,尤其是在人民币对美元汇率大涨的背景下,越来越多的资金开始流向人民币资产,导致更多美元用于换取人民币,会进一步促使美元被动贬值。再加上美元指数仍处于下跌通道内,完全摆脱这种趋势并不容易,这将是导致黄金持续强势的重要理由。

孟妍妍表示,短期内黄金宏观下行风险已经减少,但本周美国通胀数据及英国央行利率决议将公布,虽然市场预计英国央行会按兵不动,但加拿大加息令市场震惊,下周还将迎来美联储9月份议息会议,预计不会加息但会开启缩表,虽然多名美联储官员表示缩表对金融市场和经济都只有“轻微”影响,但毕竟是美联储首次缩表,投资者需要多加关注,谨慎操作。(经济日报记者 温济聪)

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