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瑞银证券:“国家队”资金不会大举撤出

2017-09-06 07:32:07   中国经济网

本周一,瑞银证券中国首席策略分析师高挺发表最新A股策略报告,认为上半年A股和H股业绩双双强劲增长,但预计下半年将放缓;同时“国家队”在二季度继续大幅增持金融股,短期内大举撤出A股市场的可能性微乎其微。

上半年A股和H股业绩双双强劲增长。瑞银证券认为,上半年盈利的强劲增长主要得益于去年同期较低的基数以及周期性行业的持续复苏。报告预计,A股和MSCI中国指数成份股全年盈利分别增长11.9%和14%,这一预测隐含着下半年增速将放缓(尤其是非金融部门)的判断。瑞银证券认为非金融板块盈利增长势头已在上半年见顶,随着需求走弱、利润率收窄以及基数效应的消退,下半年盈利增速也将进一步放缓。金融板块中,得益于净息差上升、资产质量压力减轻以及保费收入的快速增长,银行和保险上半年双双交出了靓丽的答卷(盈利分别同比增长5%和11%)。考虑到良好的基本面,继续看好银行和保险。A股方面,偏好的板块包括大型银行和保险、独立发电商、医疗保健和食品饮料;H股中,则看好保险、必需消费品和医疗保健,同时低配房地产。

报告数据显示,截至今年二季度末,“国家队”持股的市值约为1.2万亿元(一季度末为9500亿元),占A股流通市值的5.8%,环比、同比分别上升1.0和0.6个百分点。“国家队”的持股仍以主板个股为主,其大多数增持仓位也来自于主板市场。

“国家队”持股占银行以及非银金融板块自由流通市值的15.5%、11.1%,高于一季度末的14.1%、9.0%。银行和非银金融板块分别占到二季度末“国家队”总持仓的23.2%和16.5%。瑞银证券认为,“国家队”在二季度的增持旨在维稳市场,短期内“国家队”大举撤出A股市场的可能性微乎其微。在市场剧烈波动时,“国家队”的大量金融股持仓可能有助于维稳市场。

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