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专家:房地产市场降温或将影响PMI走势
2017-09-01 09:06:04 中国经济网
经济日报-中国经济网北京9月1日讯 国家统计局8月31日发布数据显示,8月制造业PMI为51.7%,比上个月上升0.3个百分点。交通银行金融研究中心高级研究员刘学智对经济日报-中国经济网记者表示,8月制造业PMI超预期上升,增长动能保持良好。未来房地产市场降温的后续影响仍将加重,不但波及建筑业运行,可能还会影响制造业生产。
刘学智分析称,制造业PMI上升主要有三方面原因。生产指数上升0.6个百分点到54.1%,随着夏季高温和雨水天气影响减弱,制造业生产逐渐加快。新订单指数上升0.3个百分点至53.1%,国内市场需求改善,带动进口和采购量增长。供需两端价格显著上升,主要原材料购进价格和出厂价格分别上升至65.3%、57.4%,均为年内高点,对本月制造业PMI有抬升作用。
“部分指标走弱存在隐忧。”刘学智说,新出口订单指数下降0.5个百分点至50.4%,连续两个月下降,为年内次低。上半年出口增长有助于制造业投资生产,但未来出口增速可能有所放缓。在手订单指数连续2个月下降至46.1%,可能会影响未来生产走弱。产成品库存连续4个月下降至45.5%,原材料库存连续2个月下降至48.3%,供需两端库存都在下降,表明企业补库存意愿走弱,对市场前景较为谨慎。
刘学智指出,影响未来经济增长的因素主要有两个:上半年出口增长有助于制造业,但新出口订单下降表明外需走弱苗头可能出现,未来是否会影响制造业生产值得关注,下半年出口对经济增长的拉动可能走弱,不过全年出口将好于去年;房地产市场降温的后续影响仍将加重,不但波及建筑业运行,可能还会影响制造业生产。
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