新闻 > 社会
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/10000169/20170824/31168963.html
Server: cms-8-252
Date: 2024/11/25 02:21:37

Powered by China
China

猪价回暖难启新一轮“牛市”

2017-08-24 03:21:10   中国经济网

经济日报·中国经济网记者 黄俊毅

专家认为,当前生猪养殖处于正常盈利水平,下半年猪价上涨和下跌空间均不大

中秋、国庆节日的来临,将带动猪肉消费的增加,三季度猪肉消费将会恢复

全国猪肉价格自今年年初持续下跌6个月之后,8月份开始反弹。农业部监测数据显示,8月22日全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为每公斤20.54元,比8月1日的19.76元上涨3.9%。猪价反弹会否启动新一轮“牛市”呢?记者采访了相关专家。

“当前生猪养殖处于正常盈利水平,下半年猪价上涨和下跌空间均不大。”农业部市场预警分析师、中国农业科学院农业信息研究所国际情报研究室副研究员朱增勇说。

为何猪价上涨空间不大?

朱增勇认为有两个方面原因:一是生猪供给较上年同期显著增加。国家统计局数据显示,今年上半年猪肉产量2493万吨,增长0.8%,较一季度提高0.6个百分点。生猪存栏40350万头,同比增长0.4%;生猪出栏32183万头,增长0.7%。农业部公布数据也显示生猪供应充足。今年1月份至6月份,我国规模以上生猪定点屠宰企业累计屠宰生猪10432.04万头,同比增长4.2%。5月份和6月份同比增幅均在20%以上。二是猪肉价格反弹将扩大与国际市场的价差,导致进口量增加。过去6个月时间,由于国内猪价下跌,缩小了国内、国际价差,猪肉进口环比、同比均显著下跌。上半年我国累计进口生猪产品128.84万吨,同比下降10.7%。6月份猪肉进口9.01万吨,环比减少24.7%,同比减少53.6%。今年上半年猪肉进口量低于上年,但仍保持在高位。近期国内猪价回升,主要进口市场欧盟、美国猪肉价格下半年预计进入下降通道,国内外肉价格差会再次拉大,进口将抑制国内猪价上涨。

但为何猪价下跌空间也不大?

有专家认为,主要有3个方面原因。一是下半年生猪供给量恢复将会显著受到环保政策影响。中央第三环境保护督察组8月份进驻山东等生猪主产省开展环境保护督察,大批养殖场面临拆迁和关闭。养殖户低价出售和转移仔猪、肥猪和母猪,虽然短期内没有造成实际供给下降,但影响四季度生猪产能恢复。二是高温、多雨天气影响了生猪的运输,一定程度减少了短期供给。三是猪价持续下跌,养殖户产生一定抵制心理,联合对抗屠宰场的压价行为,可能会倒逼屠宰场提价。

“中秋、国庆节日即将来临,将带动猪肉消费的增加,三季度猪肉消费将会恢复,预期三季度猪价将会季节性回升,但上涨空间不大,预计国庆后将回落。”朱增勇说。

虽然猪价持续下跌了6个月,但当前生猪养殖仍处于正常的盈利水平。全国周猪粮比价从1月份第4周的9.76∶1降至7月份第4周的7.12∶1,近期猪价回升带动猪粮比价在8月份第3周提高至7.36∶1。即便按6月份猪价最低时核算,出栏一头100公斤自繁自养肥猪,每头盈利仍有146元,纯利润达12%。

业内专家建议,养殖者应理性经营,顺时出栏。“8月份虽然猪肉价格反弹,但始终处于近5年同期最低点,比供应过剩的2014年同期价格还要低。这说明生猪供应形势已经由供求基本平衡向供应过剩转变。”北京新发地农副产品批发市场统计部经理刘通说。

404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/10000169/20170824/31168963.html
Server: cms-8-252
Date: 2024/11/25 02:21:37

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/10000169/20170824/31168963.html
Server: cms-8-252
Date: 2024/11/25 02:21:37

Powered by China
China

相关阅读

404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/10000169/20170824/31168963.html
Server: cms-8-252
Date: 2024/11/25 02:21:37

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/10000169/20170824/31168963.html
Server: cms-8-252
Date: 2024/11/25 02:21:37

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/10000169/20170824/31168963.html
Server: cms-8-252
Date: 2024/11/25 02:21:37

Powered by China
China
分享到:
0 0
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/10000169/20170824/31168963.html
Server: cms-8-252
Date: 2024/11/25 02:21:37

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/10000169/20170824/31168963.html
Server: cms-8-252
Date: 2024/11/25 02:21:37

Powered by China
China

美图推荐

404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/10000169/20170824/31168963.html
Server: cms-8-252
Date: 2024/11/25 02:21:37

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/10000169/20170824/31168963.html
Server: cms-8-252
Date: 2024/11/25 02:21:37

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/10000169/20170824/31168963.html
Server: cms-8-252
Date: 2024/11/25 02:21:37

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/10000169/20170824/31168963.html
Server: cms-8-252
Date: 2024/11/25 02:21:37

Powered by China
China

为您推荐

加载更多>>
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/10000169/20170824/31168963.html
Server: cms-8-252
Date: 2024/11/25 02:21:37

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/10000169/20170824/31168963.html
Server: cms-8-252
Date: 2024/11/25 02:21:37

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/10000169/20170824/31168963.html
Server: cms-8-252
Date: 2024/11/25 02:21:37

Powered by China
China