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M2增速创新低 专家:作为货币指标或逐渐失效
2017-08-16 08:23:12 中国经济网
经济日报-中国经济网北京8月16日讯 中国人民银行15日发布数据显示,7月末,广义货币(M2)余额162.9万亿元,同比增长9.2%,增速分别比上月末和上年同期低0.2个和1个百分点。专家认为,对7月份M2增速的下滑无需恐慌,因为只要央行坚定控制货币总量,推挤金融去杠杆,M2增速的低增或将成为新常态,M2增速作为货币指标或逐渐失效。
自今年二季度以来,金融去杠杆效果逐步显现,同业业务增速放缓,货币派生效应减弱,M2增速连续三个月低于10%,并于本月创下9.2%的历史新低。
中国民生银行首席研究员温彬对经济日报-中国经济网记者表示,尽管M2增速创下历史新低,不必过于担忧。金融去杠杆效果显现,金融对实体经济支持力度加大。
海通宏观姜超、梁中华分析称,7月财政存款大幅飙升1.16万亿,为历史单月最高水平,显示资金短期流向政府部门,是M2增速下降的主要原因。
姜超、梁中华认为,在金融去杠杆的大背景下,房地产和同业投资创造货币的渠道受到限制,M2低增长或将成为常态。央行在二季度货币政策报告中指出,随着去杠杆深化和金融回归为实体服务,比过去低一些的M2增速可能成为新常态,表明央行对低货币增长的容忍度在提升。
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