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比特币今年疯狂上涨3.23倍 或重演“郁金香泡沫”

2017-08-15 00:36:51   经济参考报

比特币近来涨势如虹,自年初至8月13日,比特币价格已经从956.18美元上涨至4045.89美元,涨幅高达3.23倍。仅从7月17日至8月13日的不到一个月时间里,涨幅已翻番,比特币价格进入快速蹿升期。尽管在月初比特币现金(BCC)出现时价格有所调整,但至8月13日,比特币价格没有下跌,反而上涨了三成以上。从出现之初的一美元可抵1300枚比特币至今,八年间比特币价格已经猛涨超过500万倍。与此同时,风险也正在急剧放大。

新诞生的比特币现金对比特币的冲击仅昙花一现,其他数字虚拟币种多少受到冲击,唯独比特币毫发无伤。去中心化、不可复制、跨境转账时间快、手续费低、支持跨国小额支付、能实时查看历史账目等,这些似乎都是比特币得到资金青睐的原因。然而,行情如此滚烫和坚挺的比特币,目前来看仍很难被认定为是一项好的投资品,其更多具有的还是投机客借以一夜暴富的特性。目前,比特币行情已经无视各种不利因素,处于一种癫狂状态。

事实上,各国关于比特币的认识仍然存在极大的分歧。迄今仅个别国家认为比特币是合法货币,包括中国在内的一些国家认为比特币仅为一种特定的虚拟商品。由于它并非由主权国货币当局发行,不具有法偿性与强制性等货币属性,无论是发行、保管、交易还是使用,这种数字虚拟货币都没有国家信用作后盾,经营比特币保管、交易、使用的机构也缺乏足够的信用评估。

去中心化既是比特币的优势,同时也成为阻止其发展的一大不利因素,由于缺乏监管、警示和定义,比特币在遭遇问题时更难以抵御冲击,安全性始终存在问号,无法坚定持有人群的信心。此外,去中心化也使比特币更易被取代。8月诞生的比特币现金虽然未能动摇比特币的地位,但未来仍可能是比特币的竞争者。

在实际应用层面,全球使用比特币的零售店仍属少数,反而出现了一些不法分子利用监管缺失,将比特币用作非法行为工具的案例。例如,今年5月在全球爆发的勒索软件攻击中,比特币成为黑客向感染病毒的用户提供电脑解锁的支付工具。此外,虽然比特币交易具有可追溯性的特点,可以用来控制洗钱等犯罪活动,但是有报道称,由于监管缺失,一些交易平台没有及时尽到审查、监管义务,从而被犯罪嫌疑人利用,顺利完成洗钱活动。随着比特币等加密数字虚拟货币的交易量增加,解决监管滞后的问题越来越迫切。

比特币的狂涨暴跌交替出现,是比特币的特性之一。美国银行指出,比特币与任何金融资产都不相关,没有办法解释,更无法预测表现。此外,机构认为,比特币交易量大,主要是一些机构和投资者通过高频交易做“对敲”,做大业务量,而非体现真实需求。

17世纪30年代初期,荷兰出现郁金香泡沫,投机狂热使人们购买郁金香不是为了其内在价值或作观赏之用,而是期望其价格能无限上涨并因此获利。当人们意识到这种投机并不创造财富而只是转移财富时,泡沫破裂,市场全线崩溃。与此相仿,如今的比特币一旦出现需求匮乏、资金短缺、监管收紧等情况,难免遭遇泡沫破裂的命运。

责任编辑:任冲 CN062
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