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比特币价格狂涨背后:部分机构虚假交易“刷单”

2017-05-26 04:06:07   经济参考报

就在5月23日,来自全球21个国家的56个数码货币公司就比特币扩容达成共识。同时,24日比特币价格已经涨至2400美元(约合1.65万人民币),单日狂涨200美元,涨幅高达8%。

除了比特币之外,其他主流的虚拟货币也出现了大幅度的上涨,瑞波币、以太坊、莱特币等等都出现了暴涨,其中瑞波币两个月最高涨了50倍,反映出资金对其的炒作。

去中心化、不可复制、跨境转账时间快、手续费低、支持跨国小额支付、能实时查看历史账目等,甚至被渲染具有在政府失去信用之后,成为多国的“避险投资品种”,这些似乎都是比特币得到资金青睐的原因。

此外,在实际应用层面,使用比特币的零售店有所增加,甚至航空公司也可以使用比特币。在少数国家,如日本,比特币更为合法化,有些国家甚至希望利用其可追溯性来控制洗钱等犯罪活动。市场还期待美国证券交易委员会重新审查比特币ETF事项。政府部门态度松动给比特币上涨带来了想象空间,甚至价格暴涨被演绎为争夺比特币等加密货币的“定价权”。

以上原因多多少少解释了比特币上涨的利好因素。不过,有机构发现,比特币真实的交易量并没有那么多,主要是有一些机构和投资者通过高频交易,做“对敲”,即制造虚假的交易,“刷单”,做大业务量,希望籍此做大市场份额,吸引投资者的关注和投资。这种网络虚拟商品在非理性暴涨之后,风险仍然很大。

现阶段,比特币很难认为其是一种真正的货币,各国关于比特币的认识仍然存在分歧。极个别认为比特币是一种货币,承认其可以作为交易结算工具,有的则认为是一种商品或财产需要加以征税,还有的认为仅能作为一种投机工具。

对比特币的未来仍不宜过度乐观。比特币缺乏信用支持。无论是发行、保管、交易还是使用,这种虚拟的电子货币都没有国家信用作后盾,经营比特币保管、交易、使用的机构也缺乏足够的信用。一旦有风吹草动,拥有者的利益难免不受到影响。

去中心化既是比特币的优势,被认为是这种电子货币的潜在价值,同时也成为阻止其发展的一大不利因素,由于缺乏强有力的监管、警示和定义,使得比特币在遭遇问题时更难以抵御冲击,安全性始终存在问号,无法坚定持有人群的信心。此外,去中心化也可以使比特币更易被取代。

比特币价格暴涨暴跌,更像一种投机品,风险不言自明。正常货币其汇率变动在没有特别原因的情况下,将是一个渐变的过程。但观察以往比特币的走势,暴涨后出现腰斩已不是一次。大部分人玩不起这种游戏,暂时只能作为一个投机产品,在少量人群中进行流通。

比特币的交易技术虽然已经有进步,可以扩大单个区块的交易容量,提高流通性。但是由于缺乏监管,发生过数次比特币交易平台遭遇提现危机,甚至面临破产,此外,黑客可以侵入偷盗比特币资产,极大打击投资者信心。

在缺乏监管的情况下,比特币在某些特定条件下也具有隐匿财产的用途,被用于洗钱和转移资产。未来,如果比特币应用范围扩大,各国对其的监管将逐步跟上,并且更为严厉。

比特币有可能会继续存在下去,但要修成正果,成为真正意义上的货币还需要更多的支撑。但是,可以说,比特币的出现刺激了各国政府对于数字货币以及其所依赖技术的了解和研究,对法定数字货币的出现起到了推动作用。

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