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近来,一系列的财富报告出炉,《安联全球财富报告》、《中国家庭财富调查报告》等家庭财富调查都相继发布,根据报告的数据显示,2015年中国家庭金融资产增速达到18.3%,居亚洲首位,中国家庭金融资产总额为19.7万亿欧元,占亚洲地区的46%,最为关键的是2015年我国家庭人均财富为144197元,城镇家庭和农村家庭的人均财富分别为208317元和64780元。看到这个家庭人均财富的数据,笔者和大多数朋友都发现好像自己又一次给国家拖后腿了。
这就引出了一个很奇怪的问题,近年来中国经济增长保持了较快的水平,各项指标发展良好,通货膨胀指数CPI低位运行,连汽油价格都要回到了五元的档次,已经不止有一份公开报告显示,中国人均收入早就进入了中等收入国家水平。那么,为什么在大多数人看来自己还是那么穷,我们的收入比起十年前,二十年前是提高了,但是为什么我们一年的收入往往买个厕所都困难?我们还要每天精打细算的去想办法躲过钱不值钱的困境?
我们往往扪心自问,我们穷吗?真穷,真的。等等,中等收入国家?相信了解点经济学的朋友一定会想起一个类似的词汇,这就是发展经济学中的“中等收入陷阱”,而很不幸似乎我们已经一只脚进去了。
我们拖后腿的原因是中等收入陷阱
什么是“中等收入陷阱”?根据发展经济学的标准解释,当一个发展中国家经过一定的发展之后,老百姓的收入超过了2000美元还不到一万美元的时候,就容易出现经济增长动力减退,非实体经济疯狂发展,钱不值钱等通货膨胀水平居高不下,不动产价格出现泡沫,最终的结果是大家收入增长停滞,经济发展水平出现长期徘徊不前的现象。这个现象,不仅仅是现在出现的,只要是后发发展的国家,如墨西哥、巴西、菲律宾、马来西亚、南非、阿根廷等等国家都出现过类似的情况。
回顾世界多年的经济发展,当年经济像中国一样出现经济奇迹的国家不少,上述的国家都有过类似的情况,但是实际却是呢?大部分国家都没逃过中等收入陷阱。无论是资源丰富的拉美国家,还是外资强劲的东南亚国家都曾经有过辉煌的经济发展,但是有着资源碰到国际资源价格暴跌就会经济崩盘,巴西、阿根廷都是这样。有着外资,一旦碰到国际资本危机,就会经济暴跌,1997年的东南亚就是这样。
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