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中国经济巨轮行稳致远

2017-10-14 08:27:54   

世界关心中国,尤其关心中国经济。日前,国际货币基金组织(IMF)公布最新一期《世界经济展望报告》,再次上调今明两年中国经济增长预期。改革开放以来,中国创造了世界经济增长的最高纪录,1978年至2011年GDP(国内生产总值)年均增速达到9.9%。中共十八大后,中国经济发展进入新常态,从高速增长转向中高速增长,以适应新形势新机遇。2011年中央经济工作会议首次确定“稳中求进”的工作总基调,2016年中国更是将“稳中求进”上升为治国理政重要原则和做好经济工作的方法论。

“稳中求进”总基调的确立,既是经济发展客观规律的必然要求,也是中国发展阶段性特征的内在体现。2012年至2016年期间,世界GDP年平均增速下降至3.3%,而中国GDP年均增速保持在7.2%,远高于同期世界增速,也高于中低收入国家的增速。中国经济巨轮可谓行稳致远,规模更加巨大,成为世界经济增长最大的发动机和最大的稳定器,堪称“一枝独秀”。

中国经济“稳中求进”成效显著。过去5年,“稳”不仅体现为经济增长稳定,避免了失速下滑,还表现在通货膨胀率稳定在2.0%的低水平上;城镇登记失业率低于4.10%,31个大城市城镇调查失业率稳定在5%左右;城镇新增就业人数年均超过1300万人,占世界新增就业1/3左右,全国总人口就业率保持在56.0%以上,是世界人口就业率最高的国家,也是世界市场主体规模最大、增长最快的国家,今年总规模会突破9000万户。

中国不仅“稳中求进”,还“进中求好”、“进中求优”。如,创新驱动发展势头迅猛。创新正在成为引领发展的第一动力,是深化改革的关键环节,是关乎国家发展全局的核心问题。中国专利申请量占世界比重已接近一半;过去5年,中国在技术创新方面出现了流量和存量的爆发性“双增长”,中国已进入全面创新时代、全民创新时代。此外,经济结构明显优化。第三产业增加值占GDP比重超过了一半,高技术产业占制造业比重明显增加,高技术增加值超过美国,居世界首位;第三产业就业比重提高至43.5%;常住人口城镇化率和户籍人口城镇化率同向提高;城乡居民人均可支配收入和消费支出差距持续下降,城乡家庭恩格尔系数同步下降且趋同,进入富足类型;地区发展差距持续缩小,西部地区居民人均可支配收入年均增速也明显高于其他地区。

当然,数字经济异军突起、绿色经济方兴未艾、中国企业登上世界舞台等,也是中国经济富有新引力的重要特点。更多的中国企业跻身世界企业500强行列,上榜公司数从2012年的79家上升至115家,居世界第二位,其中中国大陆的109家企业占世界500强总营业收入的1/5以上;更多的中国品牌跻身世界品牌500强行列,上榜数从2012年的30家上升至2017年的57家,居世界第二位。

世界经济稳定需要中国注入信心,世界经济发展需要中国协力推动。中国作为世界经济巨轮,从某种意义上讲,中国稳则世界稳,中国进则世界进,中国强则世界强。

(胡鞍钢 程文银 作者分别为清华大学国情研究院院长、博士生)

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