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美媒:全球货币政策趋紧多国央行撤离或冲击市场

2017-10-11 13:21:54   

美媒称,全球经济同步扩张导致各国货币政策出现重大调整,各国央行开始撤离,这对市场、通胀和经济增长前景都会造成影响。

美国《华尔街日报》网站10月8日报道,继2007年至2009年的金融危机之后,在过去六年的大部分时间中,各大央行一直是全球市场上金融资产的净购买方,其每年增持的公债、抵押债和公司证券达到全球经济总产出的约1%-3%。

但现在这一情况正在发生改变。英格兰银行于今年2月宣布,将停止其大部分购债行为。美联储于2014年底停止购债,并于今年9月宣布逐步缩表。预计欧洲央行也将于10月底宣布放缓购债步伐。

据总部设在华盛顿、代表全球金融产业的行业组织国际金融协会估计,到今年底,各大央行的净购买额将减少到相当于全球国内生产总值(GDP)的2.4%;到明年底将降至0.8%;到2019年年中,发达经济体的央行将实现资产净收缩。

利率也在上升,这是收紧货币政策的另一种形式。自2015年以来,美联储已经四次提高利率,并预计于今年12月再次提高利率。加拿大央行于今年7月和9月两次提高利率,今年可能还会有一次加息行动。与此同时,澳大利亚储备银行和韩国银行正在为明年提高利率做准备。

全球央行政策改变的背景是经济更具活力。经合组织跟踪的所有45个国家和地区今年都将实现经济增长。在过去50年中,这种同步现象极为罕见。此前,在这一扩张阶段的早期,包括欧洲、亚洲一些国家所遭遇的经济困境影响了全球经济前景。

现在,各大央行的撤离被投资者视为“警报已解除”的积极信号。迄今为止,道琼斯全球股票指数已经上涨17%,美国、欧洲的多数市场、包括印度、韩国的大部分亚洲市场都实现了两位数的增长。

但是,各大央行的撤离也可能成为一个不受欢迎的举措。央行的购债行为是为了提振市场,将投资者推向风险更高的资产领域,如股票和房地产等。在理论上,央行的撤离应该会带来相反的效果。

国际金融协会全球宏观经济学家彼得·内格尔称,在削减债券购买方面没有先例可循,因此了解市场将如何反应是非常困难的。他还表示,即使央行削减债券购买的步伐与预期一样,我们也不能对市场出现混乱的风险掉以轻心。

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