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日本几近倒贴给印度贷款修高铁 印媒不领情:优惠不够!

2017-09-29 14:32:51   

日印首脑共同参加印度首条高铁奠基仪式

印度尚未开建的首条高铁项目曾吸引中国与日本共同角逐,并最终被日本拿下。之前曾有分析认为,日本之所以能够拿下该项目可谓是下了血本:不仅为项目提供了巨额贷款,还破例大幅降息并延长贷款偿还期。不过,在印度媒体看来,这种优惠并没有什么特别值得感恩之处。

印度《明特报》9月28日报道表示,日本首相安倍近期再次访印并同莫迪一起参加了“印日合作的旗舰项目”——艾哈迈达巴德至孟买的高速铁路奠基仪式。根据协议,日本将提供总计约1900亿日元(约合人民币112.6亿元)的日元贷款,并破例将通常更高的年息降至0.1%,而且偿还期为50年,而不是通常的30年。就连莫迪都夸赞称“任何得知这项条款的人都可能不会相信这件事。”但报道认为,这种条件其实并没有莫迪说得那样“难以置信”。

报道称,一个国家通常在国内已经没有投资机会之后才会选择海外投资。这正是投资款往往从发达国家向发展中国家流动的原因。尽管对大型基础设施项目的投资有时可能是战略性的,但贷款国家通常也会确保资金被用于采购来自自身国家的原材料和服务。

分析显示,在日本给印度贷款修高铁这件事上,日本并没有放弃上述原则。日本政府下属机构“日本国际协力机构”(JICA)的官网信息显示,自1982年以来,日本给印度的铁路项目贷款有近四分之一是“捆绑式”的,即印度需要从日本供应商处获取原材料和服务。即使是像德里地铁这样的“非捆绑式”项目,大量相关采购合同也落到了日本供应商手里。

报道还称,不仅如此,与日本国内现行利率相比,日本给此类项目的优惠贷款利率其实并不突出。例如,1997年日本为德里地铁项目提供的30年期贷款的利率为2.3%,当时它国内的十年无风险利率也是2.3%左右,也就是10年期日本国债的收益。此后,日本的经济经历衰退、通货紧缩和央行降息,10年期国债收益率从1997年的2.3%左右下降到今天的0.05%。所以今天日本以0.1%的利率为印度高铁项目提供贷款,并不是巧合。

当然,这样一个50年的贷款仍然称得上优惠,因为它比收益率在0.9%左右的30年期日本国债更便宜。此外,这项贷款的50年还款期比起通常要求铁路项目贷款需要30年还款期的惯例,显得十分大方。但它的利率折扣既不是特别大,也不是空前的。因此,日本这次报价并非特别“难以置信”。有报道称日本也已为印尼提供了类似子弹头列车贷款的提议,其中贷款利率也为0.1%。

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