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印度连续两季度经济低迷 GDP增长预期降至6.7%

2017-09-28 16:47:50   

印媒示意图

印度评级研究机构称,由于印度连续两个季度(2017财年第四季度和2018财年第一季度)国内生产总值(GDP)增长低迷,预期印度2018财年GDP增长已不可能达到早前计划的7.4%,下调至6.7%。废钞和GST税改的叠加效果对印度经济产生的破坏性超出此前预期。

据《今日印度》28日报道,印度评级机构认为,随着废钞的影响逐渐减弱、政府对GST税改(商品和服务税)中出现的问题加以修正,以及节日假期的到来,印度GDP增长会从2018财年第二季度起逐渐复苏。但是,2018财年GDP增长已不可能达到此前预测的7.4%,而将下调至6.7%。

报道称,废除大额钞票、却没有及时解决货币问题,在很多方面体现出了对印度中小型企业的致命影响,因为这些领域的商业交易高度依赖现金。由于这些企业仍然无法完全复苏,其负面效应也在整体经济增长中有所体现。

印度评级机构表示,尽管GST税改的推出还算平稳,第一个月的税收也有所增长,但也体现出了一些问题。由于GST退税的延迟,生产商去库存和出口商流动性的缺失对经济领域的商业活动产生了影响。尽管印度政府近期推出一些改革措施,如破产法、公司债务重组机制、银行资本重整、税制改革等,这些举措有可能改善印度经济基础,但效果需要中长期才能体现。

报道称,总体来说,印度目前的经济前景并不太乐观:第一,2017年7月工业生产指数仅增长1.2%;第二,银行信用没有好转的迹象;第三,基于消费者价格指数的通货膨胀2017年8月为3.6%,为近5个月来最高;第四,2018财年第一季度经常账户赤字为GDP的2.4%,达到4年来最高。

报道称,由于通货膨胀上升,尽管面临要求进一步放松货币政策的呼声,印度央行(RBI)已经没有多少空间来进一步降低政策利率。并且,印度评级机构认为,考虑到多个生产领域的大量闲置生产能力,进一步降低政策利率也不会产生多大差别,特别是在投资方面。

据报道,由于印度政府内部越来越察觉到经济陷入严重问题,联合政府正在筹备一揽子刺激计划,特别旨在减轻中小型企业和出口商的负担。但是,由于可能面临的收入减少主要体现在非税方面,政府内部可用的财政空间值得怀疑。(编译/姜舒译)

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