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耶伦说低通胀持续或导致美联储加息节奏放缓

2017-09-27 13:16:52   

新华社华盛顿9月26日电(记者高攀 江宇娟)美国联邦储备委员会主席耶伦26日表示,美联储对美国通胀前景的评估存在很大不确定性,如果通胀低迷的状况持续,美联储可能放缓加息节奏。

耶伦当天在美国全国商业经济协会发表演讲时说,自2012年美联储将通胀目标设定为2%以来,以个人消费支出价格指数衡量的通胀水平一直低于这一目标。特别是最近几个月,美国整体通胀和核心通胀水平均现回落。

她表示,美联储目前认为美国通胀低迷可能只是暂时的,预计未来几年美国通胀率将稳定在2%左右。但她指出,美联储对美国经济前景的基本判断也可能出错,可能错误判就业市场的复苏力度、长期通胀预期以及驱动通胀的根本因素。

耶伦说,目前4.4%的失业率表明美国就业市场很可能已恢复到金融危机前的状态,但并不必然意味着美国已达到充分就业,受人口年龄结构等因素影响,美国失业率可能会降至更低。如果就业市场不像美联储预期的那样收紧,对通胀产生的上行压力也弱于预期,美国通胀可能会在比目前预期更长的一段时期内处于较低水平。

耶伦指出,面对这些不确定性,美联储要准备好根据新的经济数据及时调整对美国经济状况和前景的评估。如果通胀持续低迷,美联储可能会放缓加息节奏,实际利率政策会比现在预期的更宽松。

但她同时警告,鉴于货币政策效果具有滞后性,美联储也不能等到通胀率达到2%的目标后再加息。她表示,美联储持续不加息或者加息太过缓慢最终都可能造成就业市场过热和通胀飙升难以控制,进而引发经济衰退。她强调,美联储渐进加息的节奏尤为重要。

今年,美联储分别在3月和6月加息,并于上周宣布从10月份开始缩减资产负债表以收紧货币政策,但对于下次何时加息,美联储内部仍存在分歧。分析人士认为,如果未来几个月的数据显示美国通胀水平稳定回升,美联储有望在12月加息;但如果美国通胀持续低迷,美联储将推迟加息。

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