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专家:印度还不富 改善民生比采购武器更重要

2017-09-27 08:56:53   

印度还不富,民生比武器重要

赵小卓

美国防长马蒂斯正在对印度进行访问,这是特朗普上台后美国内阁高官首次访问印度。有分析认为,美印军事合作,在中国经济影响力和军事实力发展的大背景下有了耐人寻味的针对性。

我们不能忽略,印度一直有着自己的大国梦。这个大国梦不是最近才突然产生的,而是自1947年印度独立后就有,它一直把自己视为南亚的霸主。上世纪80年代,印度还明确提出称霸南亚,控制印度洋。有印度人甚至极端地说,印度洋就是印度之洋。

印度的大国梦与南亚特殊的地理区位有关系。南亚是一个相对封闭的地区,北有喜马拉雅山,西边是兴都库什山,整个南亚次大陆和欧亚大陆的其他地区被区隔开了。在整个南亚地区,印度的国土面积和人口占了2/3,其他南亚小国围着印度,彼此之间互不相连,形成众星捧月的态势,印度是那个“月”,其他小国是“星”。因此,如果说南亚地区是一个大家庭,印度自认为就是家长,其他南亚国家都是大家庭里的小成员。

除了历史和地理因素之外,最近又出现了一些新变化,那就是印度想寻求大国地位的意愿跟美日想让印度发挥更大作用的想法找到了契合点。

从美国角度讲,想要平衡中国崛起,有两个国家很重要,一是日本二是印度。日印的块头、实力和潜力都具有平衡中国的潜力。美国前国防部长卡特曾说过,美国的“亚太再平衡”战略和印度的“向东看”“向东干”战略,在南海找到了完美的契合。而日本要在中国周边找一个得力的伙伴,印度是很理想的选择。

对印度来说,它一直想把南亚继续搞成一个封闭的地区,对于任何进入南亚的外来势力都有些看法。今年北京召开的“一带一路”高峰论坛,美日韩都派官方代表参加了,但是印度没有,它没有发现世界已经变了,互联互通才是世界发展的大趋势。而且,印度虽然和中国有领土争端,但从长远看,中印之间的共同利益远大于分歧,合作共赢才应是中印关系的主流。

客观来说,印度军事领域的发展潜力还是大的,它是金砖国家、也是新兴国家,最近3年的GDP增长速度也比较快,人口具有年轻化的优势,再加上国家块头大,挤一挤就可以用来发展国防。印度的主要问题是基础工业比较差,军事工业两头重中间轻。大的项目,比如航母、中远程导弹等发展还不错,低端的枪炮弹药也还可以。而军舰、坦克的发展相对要薄弱一些。总体而言,如果美国的军事技术真的被拿来帮助印度,印度又愿意拿出一大笔钱发展军力,那么印度的国防工业有一个大提升还是可能的。

回到马蒂斯访印一事上,美印发展军事关系是美印之间的事情,这也不是现在才开始的。2005年美印之间就签署了一份10年期防务合作框架协议,2015年又签署了新的框架协议。不过,我们想说,印度还是发展中国家,国内需要花钱的地方还有很多,改善民生是比购买武器更重要的刚需,也更有利于印度人民的利益。我们也希望,美国在南亚地区能够发挥建设性的作用,而不是靠拉一方打一方,以刺激地区军备竞赛的方式介入地区事务。▲(作者是军事科学院研究员)

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