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对阵安倍?小池新党被讽“实力渣的城隍庙”

2017-09-27 06:46:53   

7月东京都议会选举惨败的旧伤未愈,自民党又在即将开始的众议院大选中迎来强敌。东京都知事小池百合子25日宣布,担任新党“希望之党”党首,迎战大选。

各方预测,本次大选将成为安倍与小池的对决。分析指出,小池新党仓促组建,面临不少现实问题,但希望之党为不满安倍的选民提供了新选项,可能在大选中一跃成为第二或第三大党。

  【安倍强敌】

25日,在宣布完上野动物园大熊猫宝宝的名字后不久,小池带着满面的笑容出席建党记者会。“做执政党还是在野党,这说不准”,她充满野心的表态令政界为之一震。

在小池宣布建党的同时,9名众参议员向总务省递交希望之党建党申请。除小池亲信若狭胜(原自民党)外,曾担任环境大臣的细野豪志(原民进党)、原国家公安委员长松原仁(原民进党)、原内阁府副大臣福田峰之(原自民党)、原日本之心代表中山恭子皆转投小池门下。在自民党一党独大,在野党颓势不改的背景下,希望之党吸纳了不少竞选经验丰富的退党者,预计这批人数可能还会增多。

小池在记者会上表示,将尽可能多得推出候选人参与竞选,其周边人士透露,候选人规模可能达150人。《朝日新闻》称,对于想趁民进党乱局捞便宜的安倍政权来说,小池的登场是一次巨大的失算。鉴于小池在首都圈强大的影响力,部分自民党议员已经开始动摇,有议员哀叹“众议院选举中东京要全军覆没了”,也有议员质疑首相安倍解散众议院的时机,认为“晚点”更好。

日本东洋学园大学教授朱建荣指出,希望之党可能在大选中斩获50议席以上,一跃成为第二或第三大党。而最大在野党民进党将分崩离析,可能跌破60席。

  【缺人少钱】

尽管开场气势不小,但小池的新党依然面临不少严峻的现实问题。

在新党筹备早期阶段,若狭成立了“辉照塾”招揽人才。据《东洋经济》网络版26日报道,虽然有约200人加入,但其中可以“立即参与国事的优秀人才”少之又少。距离10月10日公示候选人只剩不足半月,新党想在短时间内确定人选绝非易事。

另一方面,加入新党的现议员们也战斗力堪忧。刚从自民党“转会”过来的福田峰之虽官至阁僚,但在过去4次众议院选举中,他4次败给前民进党代理代表江田宪司,其中3次凭借比例代表选举(由选民投票给政党,各政党根据候选人得票数分配议席)复活。一名自民党地方议员毫不留情地指出,如果福田仍在同一选区竞选,那失败后“想凭比例选区复活,连门儿都没有”。

25日退出民进党的松原仁也面临同样的问题,在上次的众议院选举中,松原败给同选区自民党候选人,后来通过比例代表选举勉强获得议员之位。凑巧的是,去年东京都知事选举期间,松原还在为打倒小池而疯狂奔走。也因此,不少人指责他加入新党“只是不想丢掉议席”。共产党书记局长小池晃讽刺道:“(新党)是想做议员的人的希望之党”,更有人将希望之党比喻成“实力渣的城隍庙”。

除候选人外,新党竞选活动经费和人手也成问题。《东洋经济》网络版指出,如果小池真的打算推出约150名候选人,那向法务局上交的押金就至少需要约9亿日元(约合5340万元人民币),加上竞选活动经费,希望之党需要确保20亿日元(1.2亿人民币)竞选资金。而新党目前透露出的方针是,小选举区候选人的300万日元(18万元人民币)竞选押金需由候选人自行负担。缺少强有力资金支援,新党候选人的竞选活动恐难开展。

安倍将于28日正式宣布解散众议院,小池与安倍的国会之战战果如何,或将成为本次众议院选举的最大看点。(刘秀玲)(新华社专特稿)

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