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日本东京都知事小池百合子的亲信、众议院议员若狭胜近日表示,由于在野党持续弱势,有可能让日本“重蹈衰退之路”,所以他们加快脚步,计划最晚在今年12月上旬将地区性政党“都民第一会”升格为全国性政党“日本第一会”,并参加未来的全国选举,挑战独霸日本政坛的自民党。
今年7月初,小池百合子率领其新组建的地区政党“都民第一会”轻松击败首相安倍领导的自民党,夺得东京都议会选举大胜,取代自民党成为了本届都议会第一大党。此时距小池去年不惜退党以背水一战参选东京都知事还不足一年,一时间在日本政坛刮起一股强烈的“小池旋风”。
日本各界惊呼,小池组建新党只半年工夫就获得作为国会大选风向标的东京都议会选举大胜,这一“伟业”是否预示着在不久的将来日本会迎来女首相的时代。甚至连英国的《金融时报》也发文称,小池的胜利否定了近几年日本政治的稳定局面,其领导的全新政党很可能会在未来的全国大选中对自民党发起类似攻势。然而从日本的政治体制和现实来看,小池在东京都的获胜确实为其走向全国政坛创造了条件,然而在日本相当复杂的政治环境中,未来的“日本第一会”想要复制“都民第一会”的成功,在全国大选中获胜却绝非易事。
大阪维新会的前车之鉴
此前,日本由地方政党最终成功转为全国性政党的是由政治明星———前大阪府知事桥下彻所创立的“大阪维新会”。为改革大阪,实现将大阪建设成为继东京都之后的第二都———“大阪都构想”,桥下彻在2010年创建了大阪地方性政党“大阪维新会”,并在2011年的统一地方选举中成功获得大阪府议会的过半数议席。2012年9月,不满足于在大阪地区“称王称霸”的桥下,为求在国家层面推动“大阪都构想”落实,以“大阪维新会”为根基并吸收松野赖久等数名国会议员后创立了国政新党“日本维新会”。而在2012年12月16日举行的众议院大选中,合并了原东京都知事石原慎太郎组建的“太阳党”后的“日本维新会”获得了54个议席,不但成功进军国家政坛,还仅次于自民党的294席与民主党的57席,成为日本政坛第三势力的核心。
然而,值得注意的是,桥下与石原之所以带领“日本维新会”初次参与国会选举就取得如此瞩目的成绩,关键在于当时执政的民主党执政水平“太烂”,完全丧失民意支持,而“日本维新会”打出了“革新”旗号,最终成功地分流到了民主党失去的部分议席,并一时间铸就了自身的风光无限。
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