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新闻分析:共和党恐因DACA争论丢失众议院

2017-09-13 12:06:30   新华网

新华社北京9月13日电 新闻分析:共和党恐因DACA争论丢失众议院

新华社记者柳丝

当地时间11日,美国加利福尼亚州总检察长贝塞拉宣布,正式起诉总统特朗普政府废止“童年抵美者暂缓遣返(DACA)”计划做法。缅因、马里兰和明尼苏达三个州也加入了这一起诉。此前一周,纽约州、华盛顿州等15个州联名对特朗普政府提起类似诉讼。

专家认为,虽然各州都诉诸法律,但DACA计划所引发的法律争论影响并不大,而针对此类移民问题的社会争论却将对共和党在2018年中期选举的选情产生不小影响,可能让共和党在众议院选举中丧失如今占据优势的安全空间,甚至有可能丢掉对众议院的控制。

首先,从法律方面看,加州起诉的理由是,废止DACA计划举动违反宪法第5修正案中的“正当法律程序”条款,还违反《行政程序法》和《管制弹性法》等联邦法律以及禁止反言原则。但值得注意的是,特朗普政府废止这一计划的理由也是认为这一奥巴马时期的行政令违宪,双方各执一词。

美国联邦最高法院出庭律师张军分析说,目前阶段这些诉讼更可能停留在美国一级法院、即地区联邦法院进行,且集中在自由派占据优势的州,提交最高法院可能性不大,即使到最高法院也将经过漫长时间。

不难看出,针对DACA的法律诉讼类似此前禁穆令在华盛顿州、夏威夷州等地的状况。张军说,即便此案最终提交最高法院,以现在最高法院大法官的构成,对起诉一方未必有利。“如今最高法院中,保守派大法官占多数,而这些人倾向于赋予行政当局更多管控移民的权力”,因为“美国宪法赋予总统和行政当局在移民管控和移民法执行部分很大权力”。

其二,从国会投票来看,特朗普政府并非立即废除DACA计划,而是决定在其6个月后到期时不延期,6个月的时间是特朗普留给国会的“窗口期”。

张军认为,特朗普政府选择“日落DACA计划”,很自然地将问题抛给国会,让国会去通过相关法律决定是否延续这一计划,而非依靠总统行政命令。

正常情况下,国会很难在6个月短暂时间里通过一个争议颇大的法案,况且目前国会中,除民主党人外,一些共和党重量级议员也表现出对将受到影响移民的同情,认为应由国会来提出一个更长久的解决方案。张军判断,国会不可能通过一揽子移民改革法案,但由于共和党内保守派对移民改革施加了一定压力,因而针对DACA的单独条款仍存在国会通过的可能性。

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