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距离9月24日大选不到一个月,民意支持率大幅领先的德国总理安格拉·默克尔已经公开谈及选后组阁问题。她29日明确表示,不会同极左、极右政党结盟执政。
目前德国政坛的主要政党,除了默克尔领导的基督教民主联盟(基民盟)及其姐妹党巴伐利亚基督教社会联盟(基社盟)(合称联盟党),还有基民盟最大的竞争对手社会民主党(社民党)。其他比较活跃的政党包括极右翼的德国选择党、极左翼的左党、绿党、统一社会党、国家民主党和政策上亲近基民盟的自由民主党等。根据德国INSA舆情研究所最新发布的支持率调查,基民盟获37%支持率,社民党24%,左党10%,德国选择党10%,自由民主党8%,绿党6.5%。
根据民调,预计不会有一个政党获得超过50%的选票,这样基民盟、基社盟还要结盟其他党派共同执政。默克尔在谈话中明确排除同左党和德国选择党的组阁可能。据德国之声电台网站,自由民主党入阁的可能性较大,社民党当前虽加入联合执政,但也是联盟党最大竞争对手。如不与联盟党结盟,社民党可能与左党、绿党结盟。
默克尔当天对社民党提出批评,认为对方“立场不够鲜明”。社民党已排除与德国选择党结盟可能,但未表明是否会同左党结盟。
中国社会科学院欧洲研究所国际关系室主任赵晨认为,在移民问题上曾承受巨大国内压力的默克尔现在非但不为这个问题所累,而且公开表示这样做是“政治正确”,这显示她没有太多政策破绽,她领导的基民盟已经基本锁定大选胜算。外界对大选的研判,已经落到基民盟领先幅度、党派组阁、极右或极左政党能在多大程度造势等“二类观察点”。9月的德国大选,应该飞不出“黑天鹅”。(夏文辉)【新华社微特稿】
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