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隆国强:全球经济治理体系进入加速变革的关键期

2017-08-31 21:46:01   光明网

原标题:全球经济治理体系变革的历史逻辑与中国作用(人民要论)

编者按:2017年8月28日人民日报第7版“人民要论”栏目,刊发国务院发展研究中心副主任隆国强文章《全球经济治理体系变革的历史逻辑与中国作用》指出,全球经济治理体系进入加速变革的关键期。

2008年国际金融危机爆发后,在多种力量的共同作用下,全球经济治理体系进入加速变革的关键期。作出这一判断,主要基于以下原因。

国际经济格局的深刻调整要求全球经济治理体系加速变革。近年来,新兴市场国家和一大批发展中国家快速发展,在国际贸易和投资中所占的比重大幅上升,在吸收外资中占比已经超过一半。特别是2008年国际金融危机爆发以来,发展中国家贡献了约80%的全球经济增量。但是,全球经济治理的投票权、话语权分配并未充分反映国际力量对比的这一革命性变化。增加发展中国家在全球经济治理体系中的投票权和话语权,推动全球经济治理体系更加民主化,切实反映国际经济格局的深刻变化,正在成为国际社会的共识。世界银行份额的调整、人民币加入特别提款权(SDR)货币篮子等改革,拉开了全球经济治理体系民主化改革的序幕。

全球收入差距急剧扩大要求提高全球经济治理体系的包容性。由发达国家主导的国际经贸规则,本质上是有利于发达国家而不利于发展中国家的。这种不公正的国际经贸规则,导致国际收入差距进一步拉大。当前,全球收入的基尼系数高达0.7,收入不平等成为当今世界面临的巨大挑战。发展中国家强烈要求国际经贸规则向更加公正合理的方向调整。

一些发达国家转向贸易保护主义,使全球经济治理体系面临方向性选择。发达国家总体上是经济全球化的受益者,但也面临传统产业空心化的挑战。这本来是各国按照比较优势参与全球分工的结果,但由于一些发达国家内部收入分配调节机制存在缺陷,其国内收入差距扩大成为严重社会问题。国际金融危机凸显了这一问题,加之互联网推动了极端民族主义、民粹主义思潮的传播,发达国家的一些群体错误地将本国的社会问题归咎于经济全球化,归咎于其他国家的“不公平竞争优势”。近年来,美国一改多年秉持的自由贸易主张,要求进行所谓“公平贸易”,试图将国际经贸规则的调整引到对自身更加有利的方向。欧洲一些国家内部也出现了日益强烈的反经济全球化情绪。经济全球化走到了十字路口,全球经济治理体系面临方向性选择。

全球经济治理体系存在碎片化与低效率,已经难以有效应对国际经济面临的新问题。经过数十年的演进,全球经济治理体系中区域贸易安排纵横交错、叠床架屋,加剧了治理体系的碎片化,降低了治理体系的效率和各国经济政策的协调性。2008年的国际金融危机充分暴露了全球经济治理体系在防范金融风险、培育经济动能等方面的不足。同时,信息技术进步、网络安全、气候变化等新情况、新问题也对全球经济治理体系提出了新要求。

全球经济治理体系进入加速变革的关键期,呼唤推进改革的新智慧。变革全球经济治理体系已成为共识,但对于变革的目标和如何变革,发达国家与发展中国家存在不同甚至截然对立的观点。在全球经济治理体系变革中,片面坚持本国利益优先的观念和做法只会带来国与国之间更多的矛盾和冲突,合作共赢才是解决问题之道。世界各国特别是主要大国应从大局出发,以对全人类高度负责的态度,寻求共同利益,推动达成共识,负责任地推进全球经济治理体系变革,不断提升全球经济治理体系的公平性、包容性和可持续性,不断提高全球经济治理的效率与水平,推动经济全球化健康发展。(隆国强 国务院发展研究中心副主任)

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