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9月24日,德国将迎来第19届联邦议会大选,产生新一届议会、政府及政府领导人。根据德国联邦选举法规定,年满18岁的德国籍公民拥有选举权;居住在外国的德国籍公民,包括拥有双重国籍身份的公民,可以通过邮寄信件的方式参加选举。全德共设299个选区。选票由两部分组成,选民需投两票:第一票选直接候选人,各选区获得相对多数的候选人直接进入联邦议会;第二票选党派。各党派在全德境内获得的票数比例决定该党派在议会的席位名额。联邦议会由598个议员席位组成,其中299个由第一票直接选举产生,剩下的299个则通过第二票的党派选举产生。因此,联邦议会的组建取决于第二票的选举结果。如果某党派直接议员席位比例高于第二票党派选举比例,而直接议员席位是无法取消的,议会将增加悬挂议席。
这样的选举制度似乎既重视议员与选民之间紧密而直接的联系,又充分考虑到各党派在议会中的利益平衡。然而,实践层面看,德国现行选举制度并不能真正兼顾所有选民的利益和诉求,部分规定已不合时宜,甚至存在一定局限性。主要表现在两个方面:
“5%的门槛”阻拦民意
一方面,联邦议会依然设有“5%的门槛”。全德范围内,只有获得5%及以上选票的党派才有资格进入议会。初衷是不希望过多小党进入议会,增加组建政府难度。这听起来似乎有道理,然而,这些被议会拒之门外的小党选票相加后所达到的比例较高,直接影响到部分选民的利益诉求被忽视。
本届联邦议会选举中,获准参选的党派有48个,最终确认参选的党派42个,上联邦州名单的党派有34个,其中包括六个主流政党,它们是基督教联盟党、社民党、左翼党、另择党、自民党和绿党。此外,自由选民党、政党党(全称“劳工、法制国家、动物保护、精英扶持和基层民主倡议党”)、德国马列党和基本收入党这四支小党在全德16个联邦州的选举名单中都有,表明其有一定的民意基础。尽管如此,它们很可能因为5%的议会门槛而最终无法进入议会。
以2013年联邦议会选举为例,投票率为71.5%,被5%议会门槛卡住的选票比例约为16%,其中包括自民党(4.8% )、另择党 (4.7% )、海盗党(2.2%)。假设今年这一比例和投票率不变,以6150万选民为基数计算,实际投票选民人数仅为4397.25万,其中703.56万选票被议会拒之门外,只有3693.69万选票对议会组建产生直接影响,仅占总居民人口数(约8300万)的44.5%。因此,德国议会到底能多大程度地代表民意还有待商榷。
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