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阿富汗何时现黎明?

2017-08-24 07:52:19   新华网

近来,美国的阿富汗新政策一直在国际社会中议论得沸沸扬扬。早在数月前,路透社就曾报道称,在今年的北约峰会上,有消息人士透露,美国可能会向阿富汗增兵。现在,美国政府终于给出了一个略显模糊的“答案”。北京时间8月22日,美国总统特朗普就阿富汗和南亚局势发表了讲话。这是他就任总统后首次就重大国安问题发表讲话。美国的新战略会给胶着的阿富汗局势带来变化吗?

  坚守“阵地”

美国总统特朗普在演讲中说,美国必须继续在阿富汗进行战斗,避免从阿富汗迅速撤军所带来的“可预测和不可接受的”结果。他表示,新战略的实行将不再基于预设的时间,而要基于实际情况。“我们不会事先宣布什么时候开始或结束军事行动,也不会公布驻阿美军人数以及作战计划等。”美国将使用外交、经济以及军事等多种手段,推动新战略的落实。

虽然没有提及具体政策,不过,美国福克斯新闻网引述美国一名高官的话称,特朗普已签署政令,同意派遣4000多名军人到阿富汗,以支援目前现有的8400名军人。另据英国《卫报》报道,美国国防部长马蒂斯在一份声明中称,他已经要求美国军方高层为实施总统的政策做好准备,同时,他也将要求几个北约盟友向阿增兵。

中国现代国际关系研究院南亚东南亚大洋洲所副所长王世达在接受本报采访时表示,奥巴马政府末期在武力方面有一定程度的弱化,而特朗普本人更崇尚硬实力,因此未来的阿富汗战略必然以武力打压为基础。

即便如此,“千呼万唤始出来”的讲话仍显模糊,使得部分舆论感到失望。加拿大广播公司援引前美国驻阿富汗大使罗恩·诺伊曼的话称,“这是一场普通的演讲,它阐述了大概的政策,却看不到具体的实践。”

时至今日,阿富汗战局已经持续近16年,但战况一如既往地激烈。美国在阿富汗付出了巨大的金钱、生命和精力。据美国CNBC电视台报道,美国已经花费了7140亿美元,有超过两千名士兵在战争中牺牲。

  诸多考量

美国《华盛顿邮报》援引特朗普的话称,他本能的感觉是从阿富汗抽身,但是坐在椭圆形办公室做决定“非常不同”。究竟是什么原因让他感到“不同”?

兰州大学阿富汗研究中心主任朱永彪在接受本报采访时说,站在美国政府的角度上讲,它不愿意向外界展示出自己要放弃阿富汗。放弃阿富汗即意味着美国的失败,美军若撤走,很容易让塔利班钻了空子,这会使美国的威望和其在盟友中的地位受损。此外,阿富汗的地理位置非常特殊,被几个重要的国家和地区所环绕,如果美国能在阿富汗保持其影响力,不管是对中东、南亚、俄罗斯还是中国,都可以起到一定的威慑作用。

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