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美媒:中国和欧盟会形成新的两强集团吗?

2017-08-20 08:56:27   中国经济网

美国“外交学者”网站8月17日文章,原题:中国和欧盟会形成新的两强集团(G2)吗? 欧盟与中国已经是战略伙伴关系,但过去10年来,欧中伙伴关系并没有取得多大进展。而现在,欧盟—中国伙伴关系面临发挥其全部潜能和成为世界新G2的绝佳时机。

来自华盛顿的信号非常清晰:世界,还是靠自己吧。这正是欧盟—中国G2发挥作用的地方。如果世界头号强国决定休假,那么得有人接手责任。欧盟和中国作为其他经济两强,是唯一有能力胜任的。与华盛顿的新政府不同,他们对全球治理如何推进有着一些共同看法。在贸易、援助、气候变化和一系列其他问题上,布鲁塞尔和北京想要与其他国家一起找到解决方案。

最初的中美G2概念是十多年前提出的,当时初衷并非是成为取代现有全球治理结构的新实体,而是作为美中就广泛的全球性问题行动方案进行接触、谈判和达成共识的平台。欧盟—中国G2的作用也应如此。这种伙伴关系的关键不是削弱现有的机制,而是通过形成两强共识而起到补益作用。更重要的是,如果欧中彼此能求得共识,其他(包括美国)可能会加入。欧中G2或许不是万灵药,但至少意味着,在美国疏离和不愿带头之际,未来的4到8年里全球治理不会出现停滞或倒退。

在中美G2中,华盛顿和北京均视对方为潜在的竞争者或对手,两国均不信任对方的行为。这种不信任造成难以建立G2运行所需的那种牢固和坦率的伙伴关系。欧盟与中国就不存在这个问题。欧盟与中国之间没有地缘政治竞争,因而也不存在结构性不信任。欧盟在亚太存在有限,那里也无盟友,也没有欧盟军舰驶入南海中国岛礁附近。没有军事或地缘政治竞争使欧洲和中国领导人更有可能建立让G2行之有效所需的互相信任。

基于上述原因,欧中G2将远比最初的中美G2更可行。在一个美国从全球舞台退却的时代,欧盟—中国伙伴关系或能填补部分空缺。尽管落实此类伙伴关系并不容易,但如果布鲁塞尔和北京真有政治意愿,这种伙伴关系就有可能成为现实。(作者安德列·伦古,向阳译)

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