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新华社北京8月17日电 澳大利亚科学家的一项新研究显示,气候变暖将带来更强暴雨,使全球城市洪灾更严重,同时让乡村地区的河流更加缺水。
澳大利亚新南威尔士大学研究人员在英国《科学报告》杂志报告说,该校研究人员利用多个观测项目的数据,分析气温对降雨和河流流量的影响,得出了以上结论。
研究数据来自160多个国家和地区,涉及4.3万个降雨监测站和5300个河流监测站。分析发现,气温升高会带来更强的暴雨,突如其来的强降雨容易在城市及其他裸露土壤较少的地区带来洪灾。随着全球人口城市化程度上升,城市基础设施面临的洪水考验将更加严峻。
数据还显示,除非发生罕见的极强降雨,强暴雨并不会使乡村地区河流流量上升,通常情况下气温上升还会导致流量下降。这主要是由于土壤水分蒸发速度加快、变得更干燥,吸收的雨水更多,能进入河流的雨水变少。
研究人员说,这项研究以观测数据为基础,而不是靠气候模型进行模拟,它反映了现实状况。2013年全球洪灾造成的经济损失超过500亿美元,这一数字在20年内可能会翻倍;另一方面,河流流量减少对植被和农牧业的损害也是一个巨大挑战。
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