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新华社华盛顿8月15日电(记者林小春)一个国际科研小组15日在美国《国家科学院学报》上发表的一项新研究显示,全球变暖可能导致小麦、水稻、玉米、大豆等主要农作物全球产量减少。
美国佛罗里达大学教授森特霍尔德·阿森和国际同行报告说,人类三分之二的热量摄入源自小麦、水稻、玉米和大豆,但气候变化对这4种农作物的影响却不清楚。为此,他们利用多种方法对此前已有的70项相关研究进行了综合分析。
研究人员发现,所有分析方法均得出同一结论:气温上升可能会对小麦、水稻、玉米和大豆的全球产量产生负面影响。如不采取相应措施,全球平均气温每升高1摄氏度,全球小麦平均产量就会下降6%,水稻、玉米和大豆平均产量则分别下降3.2%、7.4%和3.1%。
研究还发现,全球变暖对不同作物和不同地区的影响大不相同,气温上升可能会使某些地区作物增产,但对绝大多数地区的影响是负面的。因此,有必要根据地区和作物情况采取相应措施,以在全球人口增加的背景下保障粮食安全。
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